Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The righty is scoring at .197 R/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Sean Burke has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .069 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Sean Burke too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (96) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (95) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (93) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.160).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .136 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.078), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (91) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (89) vs RHP Andrew Morris: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.231).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (88) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.078).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays