Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, September 1, 2026)?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, September 1, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, September 1, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Pete Alonso (96), Jake McCarthy (93), TJ Rumfield (92), Mickey Moniak (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, September 1, 2026?

No — Freddie Freeman didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Justin Foscue (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY). LHP Robert Gasser has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Michael McGreevy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, September 1, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

178/27066%

season 59%

Top call Pete Alonso came through. Freddie Freeman didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–4

SDaway

CINhomeTop matchup70 Final · 12–13

SFaway

PIThomeTop matchup75 Final · 2–6

NYMaway

TBhomeTop matchup56 Final · 1–6

TORaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–6

SEAaway

BOShomeTop matchup55 Final · 5–9

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–15

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup72 Final · 6–3

MIAaway

KChomeTop matchup71 Final · 9–4

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup84 Final · 5–8

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 5–1

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup75 Final · 2–4

BALaway

COLhomeTop matchup96 Final · 7–3

NYYaway

LAAhomeTop matchup80 Final · 7–1

PHIaway

AZhomeTop matchup79 Final · 13–8

STLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 341 shownScore

185 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSF· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T1
Turner HillLF
SF@PIT· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T1
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@AZ· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T1
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsATH· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T1
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsSF· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
6
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T6
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T6
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@LAA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T6
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T6
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsNYY· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T6
Yohandy Morales1B
WSHvsATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@LAA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T6
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T6
Drew CavanaughC
SF@PIT· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T6
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsNYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T6
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsDET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T6
Ha-Seong KimSS
ATL@WSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
18
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T18
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T18
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T18
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSF· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T18
Samad TaylorLF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T18
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T18
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T18
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T18
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T18
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T18
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T18
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T18
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T18
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T18
Jonah CoxCF
SF@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T18
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T18
William ContrerasC
MIL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T18
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T18
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T18
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T18
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T18
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T18
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T18
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T18
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsSF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T18
Iván HerreraDH
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T18
Roman AnthonyLF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T18
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T18
Brett SullivanC
COLvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T18
Adael Amador2B
COLvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T18
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T18
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T18
Jonah HeimC
ATH@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T18
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T18
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T18
Lazaro MontesRF
SEA@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T18
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T18
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T18
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T18
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T18
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T18
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T18
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T18
Harry FordC
WSHvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T18
Cole Young2B
SEA@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T18
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T18
Trevor StorySS
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T18
Christian Koss3B
SF@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T18
Josh Rojas3B
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T18
Jordan LawlarCF
AZvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T18
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T18
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T18
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T18
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T18
Thomas SaggeseLF
STL@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T18
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T18
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
75
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T75
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T75
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T75
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T75
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T75
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T75
Ben RiceDH
NYY@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T75
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T75
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T75
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T75
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T75
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T75
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T75
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T75
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T75
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T75
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T75
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T75
José FermínLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T75
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T75
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T75
Dillon DinglerC
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T75
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T75
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T75
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T75
Henry BolteCF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T75
Rafael Devers1B
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T75
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T75
Otto LopezSS
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T75
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T75
Matt Olson1B
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T75
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T75
Brady House3B
WSHvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T75
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T75
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T75
Will SmithC
LADvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T75
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T75
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T75
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T75
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T75
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T75
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T75
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T75
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T75
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T75
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T75
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T75
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T75
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T75
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T75
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T75
Joe MackC
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T75
Kody Clemens2B
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T75
BJ Murray Jr.3B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T75
Brewer HicklenRF
ATL@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T75
Luis LaraRF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T75
Zac VeenLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T75
Josh BellDH
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T75
Joshua BáezLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T75
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T75
Mickey GasperDH
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T75
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T75
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T75
Max ClarkCF
DET@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T75
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T75
Christian YelichDH
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T75
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T75
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T75
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T75
Ramón Urías3B
STL@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #185
T75
Carlos NarváezC
BAL@COL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #186
T75
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T75
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T75
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T75
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T75
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T75
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T75
Leo BernalC
STL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T75
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T75
Jase BowenRF
SD@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T75
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T75
Cal RaleighC
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T75
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T75
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T75
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T75
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T75
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T75
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T75
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T75
Elias DíazC
TEXvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #238
T75
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #242
T75
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T75
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T75
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T75
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T75
Henry DavisC
PITvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T75
Shay Whitcomb3B
SF@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T75
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T75
Derek HillCF
PHI@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T75
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T75
Austin WellsC
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T75
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T75
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T75
Tyler HeinemanC
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T75
Brett CallahanLF
DET@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T75
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T75
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T75
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T75
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T75
Nate Furman2B
SF@PIT· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T75
Enrique Hernández3B
LADvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Freddie Freeman (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, September 1, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Alonso (BAL) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. The lefty is hitting .277 H/PA against righties this year — and .282 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties lately — .286 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Michael McGreevy, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Alonso (BAL) (96) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .243 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.406), hitter's park.
TJ Rumfield (COL) (92) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.406), hitter's park, hot bat.
Mickey Moniak (COL) (89) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.406), hitter's park.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) (89) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (84) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), hot bat.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (84) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .233 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Justin Foscue (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
LHP Robert Gasser has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
RHP Michael McGreevy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).

Platoon edges to target

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year.
Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 96.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), TJ Rumfield (COL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Ben Rice (NYY), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Jordan Walker (STL).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, September 1, 2026)?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, September 1, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, September 1, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Pete Alonso (96), Jake McCarthy (93), TJ Rumfield (92), Mickey Moniak (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, September 1, 2026?: No — Freddie Freeman didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 96.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Justin Foscue (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY). LHP Robert Gasser has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Michael McGreevy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), TJ Rumfield (COL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Ben Rice (NYY), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Jordan Walker (STL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.