Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. The lefty is racking up bases at .432 TB/PA against righties this year — and .488 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Michael McGreevy has been getting squared up by righties lately — .429 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Michael McGreevy, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .398 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719).
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) (100) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.083).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a league-average bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .477 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.576).
- Justin Foscue (TEX) (97) vs LHP Brady Basso: a strong bat at .458 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (94) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a solid bat at .388 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.375), hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (93) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .456 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Gavin Williams has been getting squared up by righties — .464 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alejandro Kirk (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
- RHP Kyle Bradish has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Moniak (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- RHP Bryan Woo has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Gasper (BOS), Roman Anthony (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan Vilade (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .503 against righties this year.
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .460 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .424 against righties this year.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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