Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The lefty is working counts at .183 BB/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Sean Burke has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .118 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Sean Burke, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (99) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.107).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (93) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a solid bat at .100 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.191).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (88) vs RHP Paul Skenes: a strong bat at .119 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (86) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .113 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.157).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: a solid bat at .099 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.235).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (83) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a solid bat at .095 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.191).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (83) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .112 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays