Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Top walks spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The lefty is working counts at .203 BB/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Freddy Peralta has been tough to walk against righties lately — .032 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .059 in 17 career PA against Freddy Peralta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.107).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (99) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .116 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (88) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (84) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .102 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097), due to bounce back.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (83) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (82) vs RHP Andrew Morris: a strong bat at .106 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .203 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays