Today's matchup
Today it's San Francisco Giants for Willson, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — h+r+rbi (79.3/100, #23), rbis (73.6/100, #18), hits (67.3/100, #29), runs (65.7/100, #22). We've got him at 1.9 on the h+r+rbi board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Recent form
Willson is 11-for-36 (.306) over his last 10 games, in line with his .285 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
What kind of hitter he is
Willson has 26 home runs and 48 extra-base hits in 397 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He's a right-handed bat
Willson hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.
Floor and ceiling
Willson has recorded at least one hit in 76 of 113 games he's batted in — 67% — with 29 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Willson is hitting .324 at home (68-for-210) and .241 on the road (45-for-187) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.
His best game in the log
Willson's biggest night was Monday, August 17, 2026 against AZ — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Willson have graded
We've ranked Willson a top-20 hitter matchup 19 times this season. He got a hit in 12 of them — 63%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.
Where he lands across our boards
Willson was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: h+r+rbi graded 79.3/100 while stolen bases came in at 10.5/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Willson's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.