Last scored matchup
Willson isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 8 days ago, away at New York Yankees on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, where he landed on rbis (68.4/100), walks (66.8/100), h+r+rbi (62/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Willson is 7-for-30 (.233) over his last 10 games, in line with his .275 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
What kind of hitter he is
Willson has 28 home runs and 51 extra-base hits in 444 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He's a right-handed bat
Willson hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.
Floor and ceiling
Willson has recorded at least one hit in 82 of 127 games he's batted in — 65% — with 32 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Willson is hitting .320 at home (70-for-219) and .231 on the road (52-for-225) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.
Against New York Yankees
Willson is 3-for-20 (.150) against New York Yankees in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 20 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
His best game in the log
Willson's biggest night was Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at NYY — 2-for-2 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Willson have graded
We've ranked Willson a top-20 hitter matchup 22 times this season. He got a hit in 14 of them — 64%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.
Where he lands across our boards
Willson was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: rbis graded 68.4/100 while stolen bases came in at 3.8/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Willson's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.