Best MLB Singles Matchups — Sunday, October 11, 2026
Top singles spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Tarik Skubal. The righty is lining singles at .187 1B/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a single in about 18% of his trips. And Tarik Skubal has been tough to string hits off lefties lately — .063 singles per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tarik Skubal too — .333 across 9 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Will Smith (LAD) (92) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .163 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.182).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (87) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a solid bat at .143 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (81) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .140 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.182).
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (60) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .167 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.063), due to bounce back.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (56) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a solid bat at .145 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.286).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (55) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a league-average bat at .127 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.286).
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (54) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .145 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.182).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .187 against lefties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .173 against lefties this year.
- William Contreras (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL) and Brice Turang (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Andrew Vaughn (MIL) and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 1 single. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.