Best MLB Singles Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top singles spot: Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Rhett Lowder. The righty is lining singles at .238 1B/PA against righties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a single in about 21% of his trips. And Rhett Lowder has been tough to string hits off righties lately — .100 singles per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Rhett Lowder. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (90) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .180 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.294).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (81) vs RHP Javier Assad: an elite bat at .206 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.000).
- Dane Myers (CIN) (80) vs RHP Yohan Ramírez: an excellent bat at .189 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.333).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (79) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .178 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (78) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an elite bat at .194 into an arm prone to base hits from the same side (.154), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (77) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .183 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (74) vs RHP Cole Winn: an elite bat at .204 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Luis Arraez (SF), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Ty France (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Bo Bichette (NYM), Chandler Simpson (TB), Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Nasim Nuñez (WSH).
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.