Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, July 26, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against COL. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, July 26, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.5 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~6.1 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 26, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

12:15 PM ET

CLEaway

TBhomeTop matchup46 1:35 PM ET

AZaway

WSHhomeTop matchup46 1:35 PM ET

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup62 1:35 PM ET

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup47 1:35 PM ET

ATLaway

BALhomeTop matchup51 1:40 PM ET

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup41 1:40 PM ET

LADaway

NYMhomeTop matchup66 1:40 PM ET

SDaway

MIAhomeTop matchup23 2:10 PM ET

ATHaway

MINhomeTop matchup56 2:10 PM ET

HOUaway

CWShomeTop matchup64 2:10 PM ET

COLaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 2:15 PM ET

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup33 2:35 PM ET

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup77 4:05 PM ET

LAAaway

SFhomeTop matchup43 7:20 PM ET

NYYaway

PHIhomeTop matchup81

PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.9% K / BF

vs LHB35.9%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ ATL7

Jun 26vs CHC8

Jul 2vs CIN10

Jul 7@ STL11

Jul 20vs NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.8%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)21.1%3.0

3. Cole Carrigg (L)20.0%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.1%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)16.9%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)24.8%2.4

7. Braxton Fulford (R)24.9%2.0

8. Tyler Freeman (R)15.7%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB30.4%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ WSH6

Jun 30vs PIT9

Jul 6@ KC1

Jul 11@ DET7

Jul 20vs LAD7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Amed Rosario (R)23.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)24.8%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%3.0

5. Trent Grisham (L)20.3%2.9

6. Jasson Domínguez (R)23.1%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)29.4%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)27.5%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs SD9

Jun 24@ MIA8

Jun 30@ CLE9

Jul 7vs LAA7

Jul 20vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)17.5%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.6%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.4%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.1%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)14.1%3.0

6. Cal Raleigh (L)25.1%2.1

7. Luke Raley (L)27.9%2.0

8. J.P. Crawford (L)20.1%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)27.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB29.6%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs BOS8

Jun 27@ CLE7

Jul 4vs TOR7

Jul 11@ TB5

Jul 19vs SF10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)20.4%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.2%3.0

3. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.3%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.5%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)20.2%3.0

6. Nicky Lopez (L)17.7%2.8

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)18.1%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)16.1%2.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs BAL4

Jun 28@ SD5

Jul 5vs SD5

Jul 12vs AZ7

Jul 20@ PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)26.5%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.8%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)20.7%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)21.4%2.5

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.3%2.0

6. Jorge Polanco (L)22.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.5%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)23.5%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 20vs MIA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.8%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.1%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.1%3.0

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)20.1%2.6

6. Braden Montgomery (L)18.1%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)19.2%2.0

8. Chase Meidroth (R)22.4%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ronel Blanco's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs SEA10

Jun 29@ PHI8

Jul 4@ WSH7

Jul 11vs MIL6

Jul 20@ NYY2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.3%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.6%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)25.9%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)19.5%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)27.4%2.8

6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.4%2.0

7. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.0%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs CIN8

Jun 26@ BOS0

Jul 1vs DET7

Jul 7@ TB3

Jul 12@ WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)24.0%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.9%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.1%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%2.6

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.9%2.0

6. Bryan De La Cruz (R)30.7%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.0%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)21.1%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)29.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs KC7

Jun 13vs STL2

Jun 19@ AZ4

Jun 28vs COL10

Jul 8vs CLE6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)14.0%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)33.0%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.1%3.0

4. Jonah Heim (R)19.0%3.0

5. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

6. Donovan Walton (L)22.2%2.1

7. Jeff McNeil (L)15.8%2.0

8. Henry Bolte (R)27.6%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ LAA5

Jun 29vs CWS6

Jul 7vs CHC3

Jul 12vs KC9

Jul 20@ BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.5%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)22.2%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.6%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)21.1%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.1%3.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)17.7%3.0

7. Austin Riley (R)27.4%2.1

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.0%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs HOU5

May 27@ PIT4

Jun 2vs ATH6

Jun 7vs SF2

Jul 20vs DET6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)17.0%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)19.8%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.8%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)33.8%2.9

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)24.0%2.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)26.8%2.0

7. Jared Triolo (R)22.3%2.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs BOS4

Jul 1vs MIA7

Jul 6@ LAD2

Jul 11@ SF9

Jul 20vs WSH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)22.6%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.8%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)22.9%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)19.9%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)22.6%3.0

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)26.1%3.0

7. Luis Lara (R)22.0%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.3%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs TEX4

Jun 30vs NYM7

Jul 6@ SF8

Jul 12@ SD8

Jul 21vs TB1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.8%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.8%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.3%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.6%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.0%2.1

7. Jarren Duran (L)25.4%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.9%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs CHC5

Jul 1@ TOR4

Jul 6@ ATL6

Jul 11vs BOS6

Jul 20@ MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.3%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)23.2%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)18.3%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)22.0%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)17.6%2.9

6. Tommy Edman (L)19.9%2.0

7. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.8%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)27.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 21vs ATH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.6%3.0

3. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)27.4%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.0%3.0

6. Jacob Young (R)18.9%2.0

7. Daylen Lile (L)23.0%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)19.6%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs KC5

Jun 28vs AZ5

Jul 4@ HOU2

Jul 9vs NYY2

Jul 21@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)12.1%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)16.8%3.0

3. Travis Bazzana (L)21.7%3.0

4. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.1%2.5

5. Angel Martínez (L)23.4%2.0

6. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.8%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)30.2%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.4%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs BAL4

Jun 30@ SEA9

Jul 7@ TEX4

Jul 12@ MIN0

Jul 20vs STL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.8%3.0

2. Heliot Ramos (R)25.8%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.9%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.4%2.6

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.1%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)27.1%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)15.2%2.0

9. Daniel Susac (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs NYY8

Jun 27vs HOU2

Jul 2@ TEX1

Jul 9vs ATH9

Jul 21@ CHC1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)26.8%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)23.3%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.5%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.2%3.0

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

7. Michael Massey (L)23.6%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)23.6%2.0

9. Andrew Velazquez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.8 BF

Expected batters faced18.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ SF1

Jul 1vs STL6

Jul 6vs NYM5

Jul 11@ STL3

Jul 21vs SD6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)23.9%2.8

2. Pete Alonso (R)25.1%2.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.2%2.0

4. Taylor Ward (R)19.8%2.0

5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)21.5%2.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

7. Tyler O'Neill (R)24.7%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)23.5%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ CWS10

Jun 29vs TEX5

Jul 4vs CWS3

Jul 10@ MIA1

Jul 21vs MIN6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.3%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.6%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)17.0%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)18.4%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)15.5%2.4

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.1%2.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)23.5%2.0

8. Ben Williamson (R)21.8%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs AZ3

Jun 28vs MIA5

Jul 4@ CHC6

Jul 10vs ATL2

Jul 20@ LAA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.3%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)20.6%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)22.8%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.7%2.4

5. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.5%2.0

6. Noelvi Marte (R)21.3%2.0

7. TJ Friedl (L)20.1%2.0

8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs LAA4

Jun 25@ SF6

Jun 30vs LAD2

Jul 8@ DET4

Jul 20@ AZ2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)20.4%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)21.9%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)22.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)21.4%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)20.0%2.9

6. Victor Caratini (R)25.1%2.0

7. Alan Roden (L)19.5%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (R)21.6%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15@ TB4

May 20vs ATL3

May 25@ TOR3

Jul 9vs SEA5

Jul 20@ HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.0%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.5%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.4%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.4%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)23.1%3.0

6. Luis Rengifo (L)17.1%2.1

7. Gavin Sheets (L)19.9%2.0

8. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.0%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ PIT6

Jul 1@ MIL3

Jul 7vs PHI8

Jul 12vs CHC3

Jul 20@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.2%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)22.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.7%3.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)17.2%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.8%2.9

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.2%2.0

7. Bryan Torres (L)20.0%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)19.4%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ TB6

Jun 28@ CWS4

Jul 5vs PHI4

Jul 10@ BAL3

Jul 21vs SF7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Colt Keith (L)20.7%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.7%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)20.3%3.0

4. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.0%2.3

5. Riley Greene (L)24.9%2.0

6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.0%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)18.3%2.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)20.6%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs LAD5

Jul 1@ CHC6

Jul 6vs AZ4

Jul 11vs TOR1

Jul 21@ ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)16.8%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)30.2%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)26.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.9%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.0%2.0

6. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%2.0

7. Griffin Conine (L)27.1%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)24.3%2.0

9. Jakob Marsee (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs TEX7

Jun 19@ SEA5

Jun 24@ COL9

Jun 29vs WSH8

Jul 5@ LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)23.6%2.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%2.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)25.4%2.0

4. George Springer (R)19.3%2.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%2.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)16.5%2.0

7. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%1.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.8%1.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)24.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB16.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ ATL2

Jul 9vs COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)24.5%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.2%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.6%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.9%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)21.9%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)27.5%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)28.7%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Whisenhunt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 12vs KC2

May 17vs CHC2

Jun 3@ MIN2

Jun 30@ BAL3

Jul 20@ TEX6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.3%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.3%2.9

4. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)20.7%2.0

6. Christian Walker (R)26.1%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)16.6%2.0

8. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0

9. Cam Smith (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.0% K / BF

vs LHB14.9%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ NYM3

May 6vs MIN3

May 12@ CIN2

Jun 29@ BOS3

Jul 6vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.7%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.7%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.2%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)20.1%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.1%2.3

6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.2%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)22.2%2.0

8. James McCann (R)26.7%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, July 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob Misiorowski

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 33% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (81) — about 6.5 K vs NYY: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (77) — about 6.0 K vs SEA: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (71) — about 6.1 K vs TEX: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (66) — about 5.7 K vs NYM: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Ronel Blanco (HOU) (64) — about 5.9 K vs CWS: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PHI is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Will Warren is the arm to exploit it (59).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jameson Taillon is the arm to exploit it (49).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Carson Whisenhunt is the arm to exploit it (13).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (81).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, July 26, 2026)?: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against COL. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, July 26, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.5 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~6.1 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays