Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?

Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against CHC. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, July 25, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.5 K), Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Dylan Cease (~6.2 K), Hunter Greene (~6.2 K), Bryan Woo (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 25, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

1:10 PM ET

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup51 4:05 PM ET

AZaway

WSHhomeTop matchup28 4:05 PM ET

LAAaway

SFhomeTop matchup44 4:10 PM ET

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup87 4:10 PM ET

SDaway

MIAhomeTop matchup51 6:05 PM ET

NYYaway

PHIhomeTop matchup71 6:10 PM ET

CLEaway

TBhomeTop matchup16 6:40 PM ET

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 7:05 PM ET

ATLaway

BALhomeTop matchup47 7:10 PM ET

ATHaway

MINhomeTop matchup0 7:10 PM ET

HOUaway

CWShomeTop matchup57 7:10 PM ET

COLaway

MILhomeTop matchup45 7:15 PM ET

LADaway

NYMhomeTop matchup87 7:15 PM ET

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup85 7:15 PM ET

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup77

PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs CIN7

Jul 1@ PHI5

Jul 7vs ATL4

Jul 12vs MIL7

Jul 19@ CLE8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.2%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.1%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)25.3%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)19.8%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)26.5%3.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%2.2

7. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)19.2%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB28.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs CHC9

Jun 30@ TOR7

Jul 5@ ATL5

Jul 10vs BOS7

Jul 19@ PHI10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.3%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)23.2%3.0

3. Tommy Edman (L)19.9%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)18.3%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)17.6%3.0

6. Miguel Rojas (R)16.3%2.6

7. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.8%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)27.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.0% K / BF

vs LHB30.5%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs HOU8

Jun 27vs TEX10

Jul 3@ SEA9

Jul 8@ SF11

Jul 20vs TB7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.4%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.6%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.7%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.0%2.3

6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.1%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)25.6%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.5%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.0% K / BF

vs LHB31.5%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs BAL7

Jul 10vs CHC12

Jul 19@ COL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.8%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)24.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.3%3.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)20.8%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.4%2.9

6. Masyn Winn (R)19.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.6%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)20.5%2.0

9. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs BAL9

Jun 24@ PIT4

Jun 30vs LAA5

Jul 7@ MIA5

Jul 18vs SF7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)20.9%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.0%3.0

3. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.8%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.3%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)21.1%3.0

6. Jake Burger (R)24.6%2.6

7. Nicky Lopez (L)18.2%2.0

8. Elias Díaz (R)22.8%2.0

9. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB27.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs SD9

Jun 26@ TOR9

Jul 2vs DET9

Jul 9vs LAA10

Jul 19@ ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Randy Arozarena (R)22.2%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.7%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.1%3.0

4. Cal Raleigh (L)25.7%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)13.8%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)17.7%3.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)28.1%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)23.9%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)27.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nathan Eovaldi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ DET6

Jun 29vs DET3

Jul 5vs MIN6

Jul 10@ WSH6

Jul 20vs PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)19.0%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)25.3%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)30.7%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)17.2%2.3

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.9%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%2.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs BAL6

Jun 27@ SD4

Jul 4vs SD10

Jul 11vs AZ6

Jul 19@ NYY7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)27.5%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.5%3.0

4. Francisco Lindor (L)19.9%3.0

5. Carson Benge (L)20.2%3.0

6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)24.0%3.0

7. Jared Young (L)20.2%2.4

8. Marcus Semien (R)22.3%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs CLE6

Jun 29@ BAL8

Jul 4@ CLE11

Jul 10vs ATH9

Jul 19@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.1%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.1%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.8%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)21.3%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)21.4%3.0

6. Christian Walker (R)26.0%2.3

7. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)23.6%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ NYM4

Jun 29vs SD4

Jul 4vs STL8

Jul 10@ CIN5

Jul 19vs MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)21.3%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)19.6%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.7%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)24.8%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.1%2.8

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.1%2.0

7. Brandon Lowe (L)30.2%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)19.8%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs NYY6

Jun 29@ NYY10

Jul 5@ TEX4

Jul 11vs PHI5

Jul 19@ LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)26.3%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)25.6%3.0

3. Salvador Perez (R)22.7%3.0

4. Starling Marte (R)23.3%3.0

5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.4%2.3

6. Nick Loftin (R)16.8%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)23.0%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)17.6%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.4%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs TEX1

Jun 30@ COL8

Jul 5@ ATH8

Jul 11vs CLE6

Jul 19@ MIL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.8%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.0%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.2%3.0

4. Ty France (R)22.0%2.8

5. Jackson Merrill (L)23.0%2.0

6. Luis Campusano (R)22.0%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)19.9%2.0

8. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.1%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ LAD5

Jun 27vs WSH8

Jul 4@ CIN5

Jul 10vs KC5

Jul 19@ HOU7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)17.8%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.7%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.6%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.3%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)28.7%3.0

7. Eli White (R)21.3%2.1

8. Joey Bart (R)23.9%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ ATL7

Jun 29vs CIN5

Jul 7@ STL4

Jul 12@ PIT3

Jul 19vs MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.7%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)21.7%3.0

3. Cole Carrigg (R)22.9%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)27.8%3.0

5. Willi Castro (R)25.8%2.6

6. Troy Johnston (L)19.1%2.0

7. Mickey Moniak (L)27.1%2.0

8. Tyler Freeman (R)18.3%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs ATH6

Jun 28vs ATL2

Jul 4@ COL4

Jul 10vs COL4

Jul 19@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.0%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.9%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.1%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)21.8%3.0

6. Wade Meckler (L)26.2%2.8

7. Oswald Peraza (R)26.5%2.0

8. Josh Lowe (L)26.3%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ TOR4

Jun 28@ DET4

Jul 4vs TB3

Jul 10@ TEX4

Jul 19vs BAL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.3%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.4%3.0

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)19.7%2.6

6. Braden Montgomery (L)17.8%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)20.0%2.0

8. Chase Meidroth (R)22.7%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ COL11

Jun 28vs NYY9

Jul 4@ LAA7

Jul 10@ NYM3

Jul 19vs TB5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)12.5%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.2%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.8%3.0

4. George Springer (R)19.6%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.3%3.0

6. Davis Schneider (R)25.6%3.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)21.2%2.1

8. Luis Urías (R)18.9%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)14.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ TB5

Jun 27@ CWS7

Jul 4vs PHI7

Jul 9@ NYM5

Jul 20vs SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Colt Keith (L)20.8%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)20.5%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)21.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.1%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.8%3.0

6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.8%2.1

7. Zach McKinstry (L)18.6%2.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)20.3%2.0

9. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ NYM2

Jun 21vs MIL6

Jun 27@ SF4

Jul 9@ PIT3

Jul 20vs SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)23.3%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)25.0%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.1%3.0

4. Taylor Ward (R)20.6%3.0

5. Colton Cowser (L)25.7%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)23.8%2.0

7. Jackson Holliday (L)23.9%2.0

8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)22.5%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5

Jun 30@ CHC4

Jul 5@ LAD5

Jul 10vs TOR3

Jul 20@ ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)19.1%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)26.5%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.4%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (R)19.5%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%2.1

6. Griffin Conine (L)23.1%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)25.0%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)16.9%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs PHI9

Jun 27@ BAL9

Jul 3vs PIT2

Jul 8vs HOU9

Jul 19@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)16.1%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.0%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.6%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.5%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)19.9%2.7

6. Max Kepler (L)21.8%2.0

7. Tyler Locklear (R)22.8%2.0

8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.5%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs BOS2

Jun 28@ MIN0

Jul 3vs SF9

Jul 9@ SF3

Jul 19vs CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)26.2%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.7%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)22.0%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.0%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.2%2.6

6. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

7. Jake Bauers (L)28.6%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)18.6%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Feltner's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs AZ2

Jun 27vs MIA4

Jul 3@ CHC2

Jul 9vs MIL2

Jul 19@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.6%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)20.5%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.6%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)28.2%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)22.6%2.6

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.9%2.0

8. Dane Myers (R)22.7%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ STL3

Jul 12@ LAD0

Jul 20vs ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.8%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)21.1%3.0

3. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.9%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)27.2%2.4

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.7%2.0

6. Jacob Young (R)18.5%2.0

7. Harry Ford (R)25.7%2.0

8. Luis García Jr. (L)20.9%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ CWS3

Jun 30vs TEX2

Jul 5vs CWS1

Jul 11@ MIA3

Jul 20vs MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.4%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.7%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)21.1%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.8%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.7%3.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%2.5

7. Ryan Vilade (R)20.6%2.0

8. Ben Williamson (R)19.8%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs BAL8

Jun 29@ SEA3

Jul 5vs BOS6

Jul 11@ MIN1

Jul 19vs DET5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.8%3.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.6%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)26.0%2.4

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%2.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.1%2.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.3%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)26.3%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)15.3%2.0

9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB14.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs WSH5

Jun 26vs AZ3

Jul 3@ HOU3

Jul 10vs SEA1

Jul 20@ TOR0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (L)24.5%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)15.1%3.0

3. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.6%3.0

4. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.0%2.8

5. David Fry (R)22.9%2.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)21.6%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)31.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.2%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.5%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.4 BF

Expected batters faced14.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)22.5%2.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)23.8%2.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.5%2.0

4. Josh Bell (L)22.8%2.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)24.6%2.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)17.8%1.4

7. Luke Keaschall (R)16.2%1.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)16.7%1.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mason Barnett's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, July 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K, with Nolan McLean (NYM) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against CHC. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CHC has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Nolan McLean (NYM) (87) — about 6.2 K vs LAD: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Dylan Cease (TOR) (87) — about 6.2 K vs BOS: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Hunter Greene (CIN) (85) — about 6.2 K vs STL: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (77) — about 5.7 K vs TEX: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (75) — about 5.7 K vs SEA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (54).
MIL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ryan Feltner is the arm to exploit it (27).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Bryce Elder is the arm to exploit it (36).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Andre Pallante is the arm to exploit it (23).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?: Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against CHC. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, July 25, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.5 K), Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Dylan Cease (~6.2 K), Hunter Greene (~6.2 K), Bryan Woo (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays