Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?

Zack Wheeler (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against MIA. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 27, 2026: Zack Wheeler (~6.8 K), Payton Tolle (~5.8 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Chase Burns (~5.4 K), Kyle Bradish (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 27, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

2:35 PM ET

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup53 6:40 PM ET

AZaway

PIThomeTop matchup26 6:40 PM ET

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup100 6:40 PM ET

BALaway

DEThomeTop matchup50 6:45 PM ET

TORaway

WSHhomeTop matchup20 7:10 PM ET

CLEaway

CINhomeTop matchup53 7:10 PM ET

ATLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup29 7:40 PM ET

NYYaway

CWShomeTop matchup50 7:45 PM ET

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup0 9:38 PM ET

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup46 9:40 PM ET

BOSaway

ATHhomeTop matchup66 9:45 PM ET

MILaway

SFhomeTop matchup28

PROJ23 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.6% K / BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB29.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ NYM5

Jul 1vs PIT10

Jul 7@ CIN14

Jul 12@ DET10

Jul 21vs LAD9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)16.6%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)29.5%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)25.9%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.8%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)13.8%3.0

6. Griffin Conine (L)27.0%2.4

7. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.8%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)23.4%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB28.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs NYY7

Jul 1vs WSH5

Jul 7@ CWS6

Jul 12@ NYM7

Jul 20vs BAL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)13.6%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)31.3%3.0

3. Jonah Heim (R)19.4%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.5%3.0

5. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.8

6. Colby Thomas (R)25.0%2.0

7. Alika Williams (R)20.7%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)16.5%2.0

9. Henry Bolte (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17vs BAL5

Jun 23@ PIT5

Jun 29vs LAA7

Jul 8@ MIA7

Jul 20vs CIN6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)20.1%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.2%3.0

3. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.6%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.8%3.0

5. Jake Burger (R)24.1%3.0

6. Evan Carter (L)20.6%2.9

7. Nicky Lopez (L)17.2%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)18.3%2.0

9. Elias Díaz (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ NYY7

Jun 27@ PIT10

Jul 2@ MIL4

Jul 8vs PHI2

Jul 21@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)12.6%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)16.2%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)14.9%3.0

4. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.6%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)20.7%3.0

6. Angel Martínez (L)23.5%2.0

7. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.3%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)21.5%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ LAA9

Jun 28vs WSH2

Jul 5@ CIN5

Jul 11vs KC5

Jul 22@ BOS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Colt Keith (L)20.8%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)19.8%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.7%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.1%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)24.4%2.8

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.7%2.0

8. James Outman (L)35.8%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 27@ TEX5

May 3vs BAL6

May 8@ MIL5

May 13@ BAL2

Jul 22vs PIT7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)21.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.4%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)17.9%3.0

4. Braden Montgomery (R)24.8%3.0

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.9%2.8

6. Tristan Peters (L)20.1%2.0

7. Chase Meidroth (R)21.4%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.9%2.0

9. Drew Romo (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs CLE11

Jun 25@ DET10

Jul 1vs MIN2

Jul 7@ WSH3

Jul 21vs MIA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.6%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.5%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.7%2.2

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.1%2.0

6. Jo Adell (R)22.4%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)25.3%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)22.7%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ ATH6

Jun 26vs ATH5

Jul 2@ SEA6

Jul 8@ TEX3

Jul 21vs STL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.8%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)19.9%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)21.3%3.0

6. Yainer Diaz (R)17.3%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)28.3%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)24.4%2.0

9. Zach Dezenzo (R)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs PIT6

Jun 21vs LAA8

Jun 27@ LAA5

Jul 3vs MIA8

Jul 21@ AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.5%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.2%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.9%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.0%2.5

5. Caleb Durbin (R)16.5%2.0

6. Romy Gonzalez (R)23.8%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)26.2%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.2%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs SEA1

Jun 11vs MIN4

Jun 21vs CWS3

Jun 26vs HOU3

Jul 22@ CHC8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)24.1%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)24.0%2.3

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.7%2.0

4. Taylor Ward (R)20.7%2.0

5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)23.0%2.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)25.1%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)23.1%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs MIN4

Jun 28@ TOR5

Jul 5vs DET4

Jul 11vs HOU6

Jul 21vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)17.3%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.4%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.9%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.1%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)14.5%2.2

6. Cal Raleigh (L)24.8%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)28.5%2.0

8. J.P. Crawford (L)20.2%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ WSH3

Jun 26vs PHI7

Jul 12vs BOS5

Jul 21@ MIL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)21.6%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (R)13.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)25.9%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)18.6%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.3%2.6

6. Dominic Smith (L)20.5%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)24.8%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)27.6%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ CIN10

Jun 30vs CIN7

Jul 5@ AZ4

Jul 11@ PIT3

Jul 21vs NYM4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.9%3.0

2. Heliot Ramos (R)25.8%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.0%2.3

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.0%2.0

6. Drew Gilbert (L)15.1%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)27.7%2.0

8. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

9. Grant McCray (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ HOU1

Jun 27vs SEA4

Jul 2vs CWS3

Jul 8@ MIN4

Jul 22vs MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.6%3.0

2. Spencer Steer (R)22.9%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)22.4%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.6%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%2.9

6. Dane Myers (R)23.7%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)20.7%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)18.5%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB15.9%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ TB3

Jul 4vs MIL6

Jul 9@ SD6

Jul 17vs STL3

Jul 22vs ATH3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)17.6%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.8%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)33.5%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)24.0%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.7%2.5

7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Shawn Ross (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tyler Callihan (L)30.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs SEA4

Jun 28vs CIN4

Jul 3@ WSH1

Jul 9vs ATL3

Jul 22@ NYY6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.6%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.0%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.9%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)19.7%3.0

5. Max Kepler (L)19.9%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.3%2.0

7. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.4%2.0

8. Tyler Locklear (R)23.1%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs KC5

Jun 21@ TB6

Jun 26@ BAL5

Jul 7vs HOU3

Jul 20@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)24.3%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.2%3.0

3. Alejandro Kirk (R)21.5%2.9

4. George Springer (R)20.1%2.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.1%2.0

6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)25.1%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)16.5%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.4%2.0

9. Davis Schneider (R)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24@ SF1

Jul 1@ BAL7

Jul 7vs BOS3

Jul 12vs ATH4

Jul 21@ TEX2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.9%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)25.6%3.0

3. Amed Rosario (R)22.9%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (R)22.4%3.0

5. Anthony Volpe (R)22.2%2.0

6. Trent Grisham (L)20.5%2.0

7. Max Schuemann (R)21.7%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)27.4%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs MIL5

Jun 24@ SD4

Jun 30vs STL1

Jul 5vs NYM1

Jul 22vs SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.3%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (R)17.3%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)18.6%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)26.8%2.8

5. Jorge Polanco (R)21.5%2.0

6. Jared Young (L)24.1%2.0

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.7%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)26.6%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATH4

Jun 29@ AZ3

Jul 5@ COL5

Jul 11vs COL4

Jul 21@ KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.5%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)22.2%3.0

3. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.9%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.3%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)28.3%2.6

6. Gary Sánchez (R)20.7%2.0

7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.7%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB18.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ STL1

Jul 3@ ATH2

Jul 8vs SEA3

Jul 12vs CLE1

Jul 21@ HOU2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)24.3%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.4%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%2.1

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.8%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.8%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.7%2.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB15.1%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 6vs LAD2

Apr 12vs MIN3

Apr 18@ AZ1

Apr 24vs CLE0

Jun 10vs PHI4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.0%2.0

2. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.4%2.0

3. Dylan Crews (R)22.9%2.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.6%2.0

5. Brady House (R)27.6%2.0

6. Jacob Young (R)20.1%2.0

7. Harry Ford (R)22.3%1.0

8. Luis García Jr. (L)19.8%1.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Scherzer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ PHI5

Jun 27@ MIL2

Jul 3vs STL3

Jul 9@ BAL2

Jul 21vs DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)21.7%3.0

3. Iván Herrera (R)17.6%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%2.2

5. Masyn Winn (R)19.7%2.0

6. José Fermín (R)17.0%2.0

7. Nelson Velázquez (R)27.9%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)19.6%2.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)28.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026

Zack Wheeler (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, July 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K, with Payton Tolle (BOS) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against MIA. He's missing bats at a 31% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIA has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Payton Tolle (BOS) (66) — about 5.8 K vs ATH: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (53) — about 5.3 K vs TEX: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (53) — about 5.4 K vs CLE: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) (50) — about 5.7 K vs DET: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Max Fried (NYY) (50) — about 5.6 K vs CWS: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Merrill Kelly is the arm to exploit it (26).
DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Kyle Bradish is the arm to exploit it (50).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Keider Montero is the arm to exploit it (34).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Tatsuya Imai is the arm to exploit it (46).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?: Zack Wheeler (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against MIA. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 27, 2026: Zack Wheeler (~6.8 K), Payton Tolle (~5.8 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Chase Burns (~5.4 K), Kyle Bradish (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays