Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, July 28, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against NYM. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, July 28, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.6 K), Gavin Williams (~6.9 K), Troy Melton (~5.9 K), Gerrit Cole (~6.2 K), Reid Detmers (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 28, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +9% return.

1:40 PM ET

CLEaway

CINhomeTop matchup58 6:40 PM ET

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup44 6:40 PM ET

BALaway

DEThomeTop matchup71 6:40 PM ET

AZaway

PIThomeTop matchup13 6:40 PM ET

TEXaway

TBhomeTop matchup40 6:45 PM ET

TORaway

WSHhomeTop matchup23 7:10 PM ET

CLEaway

CINhomeTop matchup98 7:10 PM ET

ATLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 7:40 PM ET

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup47 7:40 PM ET

NYYaway

CWShomeTop matchup70 7:45 PM ET

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup7 9:38 PM ET

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup67 9:40 PM ET

BOSaway

ATHhomeTop matchup34 9:40 PM ET

COLaway

SDhomeTop matchup37 9:45 PM ET

MILaway

SFhomeTop matchup65 10:10 PM ET

SEAaway

LADhomeTop matchup30

PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB29.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ SF10

Jul 4vs NYM3

Jul 10@ STL5

Jul 17vs TEX6

Jul 23vs SD11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.4%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (R)18.6%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)18.6%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

5. Francisco Alvarez (R)25.4%3.0

6. Jared Young (L)24.1%2.1

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.9%2.0

8. Marcus Semien (R)21.6%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.6% K / BF

vs LHB29.6%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs SEA6

Jul 3vs CWS6

Jul 9@ MIN11

Jul 18vs PIT11

Jul 23vs MIN11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.3%3.0

2. Spencer Steer (R)23.7%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.7%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.0%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.2%3.0

6. Dane Myers (R)25.5%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)20.0%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)19.6%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs HOU6

Jul 1@ NYY7

Jul 8vs ATH9

Jul 17@ LAA9

Jul 23vs KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)24.3%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)23.9%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.9%3.0

4. Taylor Ward (R)20.3%3.0

5. Leody Taveras (L)23.4%3.0

6. Jackson Holliday (L)22.4%2.1

7. Coby Mayo (R)30.9%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)19.8%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ BOS5

Jul 3vs MIN7

Jul 8@ TB6

Jul 17vs LAD8

Jul 22vs PIT11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Randal Grichuk (R)20.3%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.7%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.1%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)22.2%3.0

6. Braden Montgomery (L)17.9%2.2

7. Everson Pereira (R)25.8%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)21.5%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs ATH8

Jul 3vs BOS5

Jul 9@ TEX6

Jul 17vs DET7

Jul 22vs STL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.7%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.3%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)21.2%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.1%3.0

6. Yainer Diaz (R)22.4%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)24.2%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)22.3%2.0

9. Zach Dezenzo (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16@ MIN7

May 22vs LAD7

Jul 9@ STL4

Jul 17vs MIA4

Jul 22vs NYM9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.7%3.0

2. Heliot Ramos (R)25.8%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.8%2.8

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%2.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.3%2.0

6. Drew Gilbert (L)15.7%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)27.7%2.0

8. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

9. Grant McCray (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ NYY7

Jun 27@ PIT10

Jul 2@ MIL4

Jul 8vs PHI2

Jul 21@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)12.4%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)16.4%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.0%3.0

4. Travis Bazzana (L)20.9%3.0

5. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.6%3.0

6. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.2%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)30.6%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.2%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+109-141

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+108-137

FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs ATH6

Jun 30@ AZ4

Jul 6vs TOR5

Jul 17@ SEA2

Jul 22@ KC7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.2%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)22.3%3.0

3. Andrew Vaughn (R)19.4%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.0%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)27.7%3.0

6. Gary Sánchez (R)20.6%2.1

7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.6%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 18@ CLE7

Jul 1vs CWS4

Jul 8vs CHC4

Jul 17@ HOU5

Jul 22@ BOS5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.8%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)20.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.8%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.3%2.4

6. Zach McKinstry (L)17.6%2.0

7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.2%2.0

8. James Outman (L)35.5%2.0

9. Matt Vierling (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ HOU11

Jul 7vs CLE10

Jul 12vs LAA6

Jul 18@ CHC6

Jul 23@ CLE5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)25.2%3.0

2. Nick Loftin (R)18.7%3.0

3. Salvador Perez (R)22.4%3.0

4. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0

5. Starling Marte (R)22.0%3.0

6. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.8

7. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.0%2.0

8. Luke Maile (R)22.9%2.0

9. Andrew Velazquez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs PHI6

Jul 3@ ATL7

Jul 8vs KC5

Jul 16@ PHI7

Jul 22@ MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)19.7%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.7%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)21.6%2.3

5. Michael Harris II (L)20.5%2.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.3%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)28.6%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)23.3%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs PIT5

Jul 5@ KC7

Jul 10@ DET8

Jul 16vs NYM6

Jul 22vs LAD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)17.3%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)30.1%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)26.1%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)18.0%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.0%3.0

6. Griffin Conine (L)27.1%2.3

7. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)25.4%2.0

9. Jakob Marsee (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs MIN4

Jul 5vs TB6

Jul 11@ TEX7

Jul 17vs BAL10

Jul 22vs MIA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.4%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.5%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.5%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.3%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)23.2%2.4

7. Denzer Guzman (R)23.8%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)22.3%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ KC5

Jul 6vs NYY10

Jul 11vs SEA3

Jul 17@ BOS6

Jul 22@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)20.1%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.0%3.0

3. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.6%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.8%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)21.3%2.1

6. Jake Burger (R)25.2%2.0

7. Nicky Lopez (L)17.5%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)17.9%2.0

9. Elias Díaz (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs LAD5

Jul 3@ LAD5

Jul 8vs AZ4

Jul 17@ KC4

Jul 22@ ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.4%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.6%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.7%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.1%3.0

5. Kyle Karros (R)22.3%3.0

6. Cole Carrigg (L)20.4%2.7

7. Willi Castro (L)25.8%2.0

8. Troy Johnston (L)19.6%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.5 BF

Expected batters faced25.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ COL3

Jul 4@ ATH8

Jul 10vs CLE8

Jul 17@ MIL7

Jul 22@ HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)24.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.5%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)22.1%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.0%3.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.5%3.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.5

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs LAD5

Jul 5vs MIA1

Jul 11@ CWS7

Jul 17vs WSH8

Jul 22@ AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.2%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)23.9%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.6%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)18.6%3.0

5. Caleb Durbin (R)16.2%2.3

6. Romy Gonzalez (R)23.6%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)20.7%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs NYY3

Jul 3@ LAA6

Jul 8@ CWS4

Jul 17vs TB3

Jul 22vs BAL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)13.5%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)31.4%3.0

3. Jonah Heim (R)19.0%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.0%3.0

5. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

6. Colby Thomas (R)25.7%2.2

7. Alika Williams (R)21.5%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)16.3%2.0

9. Henry Bolte (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ WSH4

Jun 26@ CLE4

Jul 3vs TOR4

Jul 10@ TB4

Jul 21vs CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.3%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)22.3%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.0%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)23.7%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)22.0%3.0

6. Tommy Edman (L)19.5%2.2

7. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.3%2.0

9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ HOU1

Jun 27vs SEA4

Jul 2vs CWS3

Jul 8@ MIN4

Jul 22vs MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.3%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)21.0%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.7%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.0%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.2%2.9

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.0%2.0

7. Dane Myers (R)25.5%2.0

8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

9. TJ Friedl (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-107-124

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-101-127

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+100-128

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ BOS13

Jul 5vs PIT3

Jul 12vs NYY5

Jul 17@ ATH9

Jul 22@ COL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness17.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.5%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

4. George Springer (R)18.5%2.8

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.2%2.0

6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.9%2.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)20.8%2.0

8. Luis Urías (R)18.8%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)14.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs TEX4

Jul 4@ SEA3

Jul 10@ SD4

Jul 18vs CWS6

Jul 23vs TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.7%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)20.1%3.0

3. José Tena (L)25.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.2%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)23.0%2.6

6. Daylen Lile (L)18.3%2.0

7. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.9%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.1%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs SEA4

Jun 30@ PHI6

Jul 5@ WSH0

Jul 11vs MIL6

Jul 22@ NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.2%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.0%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.4%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)19.3%3.0

5. Max Kepler (L)20.3%2.9

6. Tyler Locklear (R)21.9%2.0

7. Adrian Del Castillo (L)25.8%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.2%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs TB7

Jul 7@ NYM4

Jul 12@ BAL6

Jul 17vs SD3

Jul 22vs SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)21.2%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)24.0%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.0%3.0

4. Royce Lewis (R)22.0%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%2.6

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.7%2.0

7. Alex Jackson (R)23.8%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)16.6%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs KC2

Jul 3@ CLE2

Jul 9vs BOS4

Jul 17@ TOR5

Jul 22@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Max Schuemann (R)20.8%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)25.7%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.5%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (R)21.8%2.8

5. Anthony Volpe (R)21.9%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)29.1%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)27.7%2.0

8. Spencer Jones (L)25.0%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ MIN1

Jul 2vs MIA1

Jul 7@ LAD5

Jul 12@ SF1

Jul 21vs WSH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.0%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.5%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)19.8%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.7%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.0%2.8

6. Luis Rengifo (L)22.0%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)22.0%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)23.5%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ MIL4

Jul 1vs SD5

Jul 8@ BAL2

Jul 17vs MIN6

Jul 22vs DET5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.8%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)25.2%3.0

3. Iván Herrera (R)21.1%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)17.4%3.0

5. Masyn Winn (R)20.9%3.0

6. José Fermín (R)17.4%2.0

7. Nelson Velázquez (R)23.8%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)17.3%2.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs SF2

Jul 6@ SD6

Jul 11@ LAD2

Jul 18vs STL3

Jul 23@ STL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)18.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.6%2.8

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)26.0%2.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)33.6%2.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.0%2.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.7%2.0

7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Tyler Callihan (L)31.2%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, July 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K, with Gavin Williams (CLE) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against NYM. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and NYM has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Gavin Williams (CLE) (98) — about 6.9 K vs CIN: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Troy Melton (DET) (71) — about 5.9 K vs BAL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) (70) — about 6.2 K vs CWS: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Reid Detmers (LAA) (67) — about 5.8 K vs HOU: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Henderson (MIL) (65) — about 5.7 K vs SF: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PIT is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Brandon Pfaadt is the arm to exploit it (0).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Troy Melton is the arm to exploit it (71).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Anthony Kay is the arm to exploit it (11).
CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Slade Cecconi is the arm to exploit it (25).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 0.0 strikeouts. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, July 28, 2026)?: Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against NYM. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, July 28, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.6 K), Gavin Williams (~6.9 K), Troy Melton (~5.9 K), Gerrit Cole (~6.2 K), Reid Detmers (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays