NFL Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every NFL game in Week 3 — plus the quarterback and skill-player numbers behind each one.
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where the WizLine and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Read them with their sample sizes: an NFL season is 272 games, and the moneyline takes the favourite most weeks — a healthy W-L there is what a favourite-heavy card looks like, not evidence on its own. Units at −110, one unit a pick, priced pre-kick. None of this is posted as a play.
Monday, September 28
Philadelphia EaglesEagles✗7WizPick53%−113WizLine64%market−198line−10.6%
Chicago BearsBears2747%+113WizLine36%market+164line+10.6%Sunday, September 27
Seattle SeahawksSeahawks✗31WizPick81%−424WizLine77%market−420line+3.5%
Washington CommandersCommanders3319%+424WizLine23%market+325line−3.5%
Kansas City ChiefsChiefs✓24WizPick64%−174WizLine82%market−600line−18.7%
Miami DolphinsDolphins1036%+174WizLine18%market+440line+18.7%
Houston TexansTexans1747%+115WizLine53%market−125line−6.6%
Indianapolis ColtsColts✓19WizPick53%−115WizLine47%market+105line+6.6%
Tennessee TitansTitans✗7WizPick50%−101WizLine44%market+115line+5.9%
New York GiantsGiants1250%+101WizLine56%market−140line−5.9%
Los Angeles ChargersChargers1623%+329WizLine26%market+275line−2.2%
Buffalo BillsBills✓24WizPick77%−329WizLine74%market−350line+2.2%
Carolina PanthersPanthers✗18WizPick51%−106WizLine54%market−130line−2.8%
Cleveland BrownsBrowns2149%+106WizLine46%market+110line+2.8%
New York JetsJets2437%+169WizLine27%market+260line+10.5%
Detroit LionsLions✓31WizPick63%−169WizLine73%market−330line−10.5%
Cincinnati BengalsBengals2749%+105WizLine61%market−175line−12.3%
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers✓30WizPick51%−105WizLine39%market+145line+12.3%
New England PatriotsPatriots645%+124WizLine41%market+135line+4.0%
Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars✓35WizPick55%−124WizLine59%market−162line−4.0%
Minnesota VikingsVikings✓23WizPick52%−109WizLine51%market−115line+1.1%
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers1648%+109WizLine49%market−105line−1.1%
Arizona CardinalsCardinals3024%+321WizLine23%market+310line+0.3%
San Francisco 49ers49ers✓36WizPick76%−321WizLine77%market−395line−0.3%
Baltimore RavensRavens✓34WizPick58%−141WizLine61%market−176line−2.8%
Dallas CowboysCowboys3142%+141WizLine39%market+148line+2.8%
Las Vegas RaidersRaiders3539%+159WizLine37%market+155line+1.2%
New Orleans SaintsSaints✗27WizPick61%−159WizLine63%market−190line−1.2%
Los Angeles RamsRams✗26WizPick53%−112WizLine51%market−115line+1.8%
Denver BroncosBroncos3047%+112WizLine49%market−105line−1.8%Thursday, September 24
Atlanta FalconsFalcons3549%+105WizLine32%market+198line+16.6%
Green Bay PackersPackers✗14WizPick51%−105WizLine68%market−240line−16.6%Projected points, spread and win probability come from a drive-level Monte Carlo built on play-by-play, snap counts and depth charts. Player lines are the same simulation read a different way — open a card to see them, with every market and the live box score. Every pick is graded at the book's line and the record is on this page. This is a finished week — the projections are the ones that were published before kickoff, not rebuilt after. Model nfl-sim-1/19of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).