NFL Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every NFL game in Week 4 — plus the quarterback and skill-player numbers behind each one.
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where the WizLine and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Read them with their sample sizes: an NFL season is 272 games, and the moneyline takes the favourite most weeks — a healthy W-L there is what a favourite-heavy card looks like, not evidence on its own. Units at −110, one unit a pick, priced pre-kick. None of this is posted as a play.
Monday, October 5
Atlanta FalconsFalcons4540%+148WizLine48%market−100line−7.5%
New Orleans SaintsSaints✗24WizPick60%−148WizLine52%market−120line+7.5%Sunday, October 4
Indianapolis ColtsColts✓30WizPick56%−127WizLine66%market−225line−10.4%
Washington CommandersCommanders1344%+127WizLine34%market+185line+10.4%
New York JetsJets1236%+176WizLine37%market+158line−1.0%
Chicago BearsBears✓23WizPick64%−176WizLine63%market−190line+1.0%
Green Bay PackersPackers1748%+109WizLine58%market−155line−10.5%
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers✗14WizPick52%−109WizLine42%market+130line+10.5%
Arizona CardinalsCardinals✗24WizPick52%−110WizLine55%market−138line−3.1%
New York GiantsGiants3648%+110WizLine45%market+115line+3.1%
New England PatriotsPatriots2937%+171WizLine26%market+275line+11.3%
Buffalo BillsBills✗26WizPick63%−171WizLine74%market−345line−11.3%
Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars✓22WizPick57%−130WizLine44%market+118line+12.5%
Cincinnati BengalsBengals1743%+130WizLine56%market−140line−12.5%
Dallas CowboysCowboys3437%+173WizLine42%market+130line−5.1%
Houston TexansTexans✗30WizPick63%−173WizLine58%market−155line+5.1%
Tennessee TitansTitans1822%+356WizLine15%market+550line+7.2%
Baltimore RavensRavens✓24WizPick78%−356WizLine85%market−800line−7.2%
Los Angeles RamsRams✓24WizPick56%−129WizLine63%market−190line−6.3%
Philadelphia EaglesEagles2044%+129WizLine37%market+155line+6.3%
Miami DolphinsDolphins1024%+317WizLine19%market+400line+4.8%
Minnesota VikingsVikings✓15WizPick76%−317WizLine81%market−535line−4.8%
Los Angeles ChargersChargers2324%+317WizLine25%market+285line−0.9%
Seattle SeahawksSeahawks✓30WizPick76%−317WizLine75%market−370line+0.9%
Denver BroncosBroncos1432%+211WizLine41%market+135line−8.6%
San Francisco 49ers49ers✓24WizPick68%−211WizLine59%market−162line+8.6%
Kansas City ChiefsChiefs✓30WizPick52%−110WizLine66%market−225line−14.1%
Las Vegas RaidersRaiders2748%+110WizLine34%market+185line+14.1%
Detroit LionsLions2644%+128WizLine65%market−210line−21.2%
Carolina PanthersPanthers✓32WizPick56%−128WizLine35%market+175line+21.2%Thursday, October 1
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers2445%+124WizLine57%market−148line−12.6%
Cleveland BrownsBrowns✓27WizPick55%−124WizLine43%market+125line+12.6%Projected points, spread and win probability come from a drive-level Monte Carlo built on play-by-play, snap counts and depth charts. Player lines are the same simulation read a different way — open a card to see them, with every market and the live box score. Every pick is graded at the book's line and the record is on this page. This is a finished week — the projections are the ones that were published before kickoff, not rebuilt after. Model nfl-sim-1/19of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).