NFL Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every NFL game in Week 1 — plus the quarterback and skill-player numbers behind each one.
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where the WizLine and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Read them with their sample sizes: an NFL season is 272 games, and the moneyline takes the favourite most weeks — a healthy W-L there is what a favourite-heavy card looks like, not evidence on its own. Units at −110, one unit a pick, priced pre-kick. None of this is posted as a play.
Monday, September 14
Denver BroncosBroncos✗10WizPick52%−107WizLine44%market+117line+8.1%
Kansas City ChiefsChiefs3148%+107WizLine56%market−148line−8.1%Sunday, September 13
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers2750%+100WizLine36%market+165line+13.8%
Cincinnati BengalsBengals✓33WizPick50%−100WizLine64%market−200line−13.8%
Buffalo BillsBills3646%+119WizLine52%market−118line−5.8%
Houston TexansTexans✗31WizPick54%−119WizLine49%market−104line+5.8%
New York JetsJets2331%+223WizLine43%market+119line−12.2%
Tennessee TitansTitans✗10WizPick69%−223WizLine57%market−150line+12.2%
Chicago BearsBears✓59WizPick57%−130WizLine59%market−160line−2.5%
Carolina PanthersPanthers3743%+130WizLine41%market+135line+2.5%
New Orleans SaintsSaints3040%+149WizLine26%market+270line+14.1%
Detroit LionsLions✓31WizPick60%−149WizLine74%market−335line−14.1%
Baltimore RavensRavens4147%+115WizLine61%market−175line−14.8%
Indianapolis ColtsColts✗23WizPick53%−115WizLine39%market+150line+14.8%
Atlanta FalconsFalcons1344%+125WizLine39%market+145line+5.1%
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers✓20WizPick56%−125WizLine61%market−170line−5.1%
Cleveland BrownsBrowns1027%+273WizLine23%market+310line+3.7%
Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars✓34WizPick73%−273WizLine77%market−429line−3.7%
Washington CommandersCommanders2222%+347WizLine33%market+195line−10.2%
Philadelphia EaglesEagles✓24WizPick78%−347WizLine67%market−235line+10.2%
Miami DolphinsDolphins✗13WizPick55%−123WizLine37%market+155line+17.6%
Las Vegas RaidersRaiders2745%+123WizLine63%market−190line−17.6%
Green Bay PackersPackers2238%+165WizLine46%market+110line−8.0%
Minnesota VikingsVikings✓39WizPick62%−165WizLine54%market−130line+8.0%
Arizona CardinalsCardinals2627%+269WizLine20%market+390line+7.6%
Los Angeles ChargersChargers✗14WizPick73%−269WizLine80%market−530line−7.6%
Dallas CowboysCowboys2035%+185WizLine59%market−160line−24.0%
New York GiantsGiants✓28WizPick65%−185WizLine41%market+135line+24.0%Thursday, September 10
San Francisco 49ers49ers2722%+347WizLine36%market+166line−13.7%
Los Angeles RamsRams✗7WizPick78%−347WizLine64%market−200line+13.7%Wednesday, September 9
New England PatriotsPatriots1035%+183WizLine37%market+158line−1.6%
Seattle SeahawksSeahawks✓13WizPick65%−183WizLine63%market−195line+1.6%Projected points, spread and win probability come from a drive-level Monte Carlo built on play-by-play, snap counts and depth charts. Player lines are the same simulation read a different way — open a card to see them, with every market and the live box score. Every pick is graded at the book's line and the record is on this page. This is a finished week — the projections are the ones that were published before kickoff, not rebuilt after. Model nfl-sim-1/19of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).