Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top hits spot: Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .342 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .360 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .267 in 15 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (82) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (79) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.213).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (75) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (74) vs RHP Bryce Miller: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (74) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.120), hot bat.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (71) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .263 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (70) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
- RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- LHP David Peterson has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .298 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .290 against lefties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Heliot Ramos (SF), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Bo Bichette (NYM). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryce Harper (PHI), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Junior Caminero (TB), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), and Colson Montgomery (CWS).
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.