Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Carson Whisenhunt. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Michael Harris II (100), Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Luis Arraez (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, July 9, 2026?

No — Jake McCarthy didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year. Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). LHP David Peterson has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Blaze Alexander (BAL). RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 66%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 68%

Full slate

137/23459%

season 58%

Top call Michael Harris II came through. Jake McCarthy didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–5

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–7

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup78 Final · 12–4

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–3

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup86 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 2–1

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup95 Final · 1–4

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–8

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–0

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–4

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup90 Final · 6–7

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup64 Final · 3–1

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup96 Final · 2–8

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 293 shownScore

139 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jake MangumCF
PITvsATL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T1
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@TEX· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
3
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T3
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@PIT· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T3
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
6
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T6
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T6
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T6
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T6
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T6
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T6
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T6
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T6
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T6
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T6
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T6
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T6
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T6
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T6
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T6
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T6
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T6
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T6
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T6
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T6
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T6
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T6
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T6
Manny Machado3B
SDvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T6
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T6
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T6
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T6
Jared Young1B
NYMvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T6
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T6
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T6
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T6
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T6
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T6
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #220
T6
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #221
T6
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #224
T6
Ian HappLF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #226
T6
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #233
44
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T44
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T44
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T44
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T44
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T44
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T44
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T44
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T44
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T44
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T44
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T44
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #28
T44
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T44
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T44
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T44
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T44
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T44
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T44
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T44
Liam HicksC
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T44
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T44
Jonah HeimC
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T44
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T44
Matt Olson1B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T44
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T44
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T44
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T44
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T44
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T44
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T44
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T44
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T44
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T44
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T44
Starling MarteRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T44
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T44
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T44
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T44
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T44
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T44
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T44
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T44
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T44
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T44
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T44
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T44
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T44
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T44
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T44
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T44
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T44
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T44
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T44
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T44
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T44
Connor WongC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T44
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T44
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T44
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T44
Jake RogersC
DETvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T44
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T44
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T44
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T44
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T44
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T44
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T44
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T44
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T44
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T44
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T44
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T44
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T44
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T44
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T44
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T44
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T44
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T44
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T44
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T44
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T44
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T44
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T44
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T44
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T44
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T44
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T44
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T44
Michael Busch1B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #217
T44
Tristan GraySS
MINvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T44
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #225
T44
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T44
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T44
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
T44
Austin WellsC
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T44
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T44
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Jake McCarthy (COL) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Carson Whisenhunt. The lefty is hitting .364 H/PA against lefties this year — and .381 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Carson Whisenhunt has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Carson Whisenhunt. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Mitch Keller: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) (100) vs LHP Framber Valdez: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.319), hot bat.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.241).
Luis Arraez (SF) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (96) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (95) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .265 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238), hot bat.
Trea Turner (PHI) (94) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
LHP David Peterson has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Blaze Alexander (BAL).
RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).

Platoon edges to target

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Heliot Ramos (SF), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Spencer Steer (CIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Hunter Goodman (COL), Randal Grichuk (CWS), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Carson Whisenhunt. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Michael Harris II (100), Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Luis Arraez (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, July 9, 2026?: No — Jake McCarthy didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year. Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). LHP David Peterson has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Blaze Alexander (BAL). RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Heliot Ramos (SF), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Spencer Steer (CIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Hunter Goodman (COL), Randal Grichuk (CWS), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.