Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Chase DeLauter (93), Otto Lopez (87), Freddie Freeman (87), Liam Hicks (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, July 8, 2026?

Yes — Michael Harris II got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Connor Prielipp has been vulnerable to lefties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Kyle Manzardo (CLE). RHP Gerrit Cole has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). RHP Colin Rea has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 66%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

157/26659%

season 58%

Top call Michael Harris II came through. Liam Hicks didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–0

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–7

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–6

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup62 Final · 3–0

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–2

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup87 Final · 0–3

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup72 Final · 2–8

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–6

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–11

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–6

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup93 Final · 5–0

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–5

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup71 Final · 13–1

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup60 Final · 3–4

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–10

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup71

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 325 shownScore

161 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T1
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T1
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsCHC· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
4
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T4
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T4
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T4
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@DET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T4
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
9
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T9
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T9
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T9
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T9
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T9
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T9
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T9
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T9
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T9
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T9
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T9
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T9
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T9
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T9
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T9
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T9
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T9
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T9
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T9
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T9
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T9
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T9
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T9
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T9
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T9
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T9
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T9
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T9
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T9
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T9
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T9
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T9
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T9
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T9
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T9
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T9
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T9
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T9
Zach DezenzoLF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T9
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T9
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T9
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsBOS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T9
Alan RodenRF
MINvsCLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
52
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T52
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T52
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T52
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T52
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T52
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T52
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T52
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T52
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T52
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T52
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T52
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T52
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T52
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T52
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T52
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T52
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T52
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T52
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T52
Christian YelichDH
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T52
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T52
Max Muncy3B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T52
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T52
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T52
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T52
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T52
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T52
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T52
Carter JensenC
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T52
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T52
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T52
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T52
Josh BellDH
MINvsCLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T52
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T52
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T52
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T52
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T52
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T52
Luis LaraRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T52
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T52
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T52
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T52
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T52
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T52
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T52
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T52
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T52
George SpringerDH
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T52
Joey BartC
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T52
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T52
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T52
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T52
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T52
Michael Massey2B
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T52
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T52
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T52
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T52
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T52
Yainer DiazC
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T52
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T52
Cal RaleighC
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T52
Michael Busch1B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T52
Ian HappLF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T52
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T52
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T52
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T52
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T52
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T52
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T52
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T52
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T52
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T52
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T52
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T52
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T52
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T52
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T52
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T52
Nick AllenSS
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T52
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T52
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T52
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T52
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T52
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T52
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T52
Salvador PerezDH
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T52
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T52
Carson KellyC
CHC@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T52
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T52
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T52
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T52
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T52
Josh LoweLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T52
Edouard Julien2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T52
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T52
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T52
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T52
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T52
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T52
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T52
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T52
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T52
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T52
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T52
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T52
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T52
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Michael Harris II (ATL) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, with Chase DeLauter (CLE) and Otto Lopez (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .342 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been tough on righties lately — .095 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase DeLauter (CLE) (93) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.667).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (87) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.241), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (87) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Liam Hicks (MIA) (83) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (83) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .251 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Heliot Ramos (SF) (78) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .255 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.231), hot bat.
Ernie Clement (TOR) (77) vs RHP Logan Webb: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.313).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Connor Prielipp has been vulnerable to lefties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Kyle Manzardo (CLE).
RHP Gerrit Cole has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
RHP Colin Rea has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Heliot Ramos (SF), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Mookie Betts (LAD), William Contreras (MIL), Bryce Harper (PHI), Junior Caminero (TB), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Michael Harris II finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Chase DeLauter (93), Otto Lopez (87), Freddie Freeman (87), Liam Hicks (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, July 8, 2026?: Yes — Michael Harris II got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Connor Prielipp has been vulnerable to lefties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Kyle Manzardo (CLE). RHP Gerrit Cole has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). RHP Colin Rea has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Heliot Ramos (SF), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Mookie Betts (LAD), William Contreras (MIL), Bryce Harper (PHI), Junior Caminero (TB), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.