MatchWiz

Best MLB fantasy points matchupsTuesday, July 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Projected DK Points23.1 pts

Innings6
Strikeouts8.4
Win probability43%
Earned runs2
Hits / Walks4.3 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Projected DK Points16.3 pts

Innings5.4
Strikeouts6.3
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.1 / 2.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.8 pts

Innings6
Strikeouts5.5
Win probability39%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.9 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.5 pts

Innings5.6
Strikeouts5.3
Win probability39%
Earned runs2.3
Hits / Walks4.8 / 1.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.1 pts

Innings5.4
Strikeouts5
Win probability39%
Earned runs2.1
Hits / Walks4.2 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.9 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts6.5
Win probability33%
Earned runs3
Hits / Walks5.5 / 1.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.8 pts

Innings5.4
Strikeouts5.7
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.6
Hits / Walks4.7 / 1.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.2 pts

Innings5.7
Strikeouts5
Win probability38%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks5.1 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.8 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts5
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.2
Hits / Walks3.9 / 2.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.7 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts5.5
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks5.1 / 1.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.7 pts

Innings5.6
Strikeouts5
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks5.2 / 2.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.4 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts6.4
Win probability29%
Earned runs3.3
Hits / Walks5.4 / 1.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Will Warren's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.8 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.3
Hits / Walks5 / 2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.4 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts5
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks5.6 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.3 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts4.4
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.6
Hits / Walks4.6 / 0.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.4 pts

Innings4.7
Strikeouts4.7
Win probability33%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.9 / 1.8

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.0 pts

Innings4.7
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability33%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.4 / 2.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.9 pts

Innings4.4
Strikeouts4.8
Win probability32%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.3 / 2.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.8 pts

Innings4.7
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability32%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks4 / 2.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.4 pts

Innings4.3
Strikeouts4.2
Win probability32%
Earned runs2.4
Hits / Walks4.3 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

David Peterson's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.1 pts

Innings4.1
Strikeouts4.9
Win probability28%
Earned runs2.9
Hits / Walks3.9 / 2.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.0 pts

Innings3.4
Strikeouts4
Win probability31%
Earned runs1.7
Hits / Walks3.3 / 1.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Projected DK Points9.8 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability30%
Earned runs3.5
Hits / Walks4.7 / 3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Projected DK Points9.4 pts

Innings4.6
Strikeouts3.5
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.3
Hits / Walks4.6 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Projected DK Points9.3 pts

Innings4.5
Strikeouts3.5
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.2
Hits / Walks4.6 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Projected DK Points8.9 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts3.8
Win probability31%
Earned runs3.1
Hits / Walks5.6 / 1.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Projected DK Points8.8 pts

Innings2.7
Strikeouts4.2
Win probability28%
Earned runs1.6
Hits / Walks2.4 / 2.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kendry Rojas's full player page →

Projected DK Points8.6 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts5
Win probability25%
Earned runs4.1
Hits / Walks5.5 / 2.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Projected DK Points8.5 pts

Innings5.4
Strikeouts3.2
Win probability32%
Earned runs3.3
Hits / Walks6.1 / 1.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Projected DK Points7.3 pts

Innings4.7
Strikeouts4.1
Win probability25%
Earned runs3.8
Hits / Walks5.3 / 2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

What the fantasy points board is

The Fantasy Points board projects a starter's projected DraftKings fantasy points. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His strikeout, outs, earned-run, hits and walks projections, composed via the DK pitcher formula.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Composed from the tuned pitcher boards, so it inherits their sharpness. A DFS tool, not a book market.

How to use it

The pitcher side of the DFS build — sort by value, then lock a top arm in the optimizer.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.