Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.9 BF
Expected batters faced9.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)11.9%1.9
2. Ozzie Albies (R)11.4%1.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.4%1.0
4. Dominic Smith (L)11.3%1.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.6%1.0
6. Drake Baldwin (L)13.4%1.0
7. Austin Riley (R)10.2%1.0
8. Rowdy Tellez (L)11.7%1.0
9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)12.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.8 BF
Expected batters faced9.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)16.3%1.8
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.8%1.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)10.8%1.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.2%1.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)8.6%1.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)12.5%1.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)8.5%1.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%1.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)16.3%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.9%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.6 BF
Expected batters faced11.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)10.5%2.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.5%2.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)12.3%1.6
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.4%1.0
5. Owen Caissie (L)10.8%1.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.6%1.0
7. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.0
8. Connor Norby (R)10.1%1.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)10.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.4%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.2 BF
Expected batters faced16.2
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)13.5%2.0
2. Andy Pages (R)10.6%2.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.3%2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.6%2.0
5. Tommy Edman (R)11.8%2.0
6. Max Muncy (L)12.9%2.0
7. Alex Call (R)13.4%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)9.6%1.3
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
We project 1.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)10.7%3.0
2. Nick Loftin (R)8.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)10.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%2.4
5. Carter Jensen (L)12.6%2.0
6. Starling Marte (R)10.4%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)13.1%2.0
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.8%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-132+100
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.9%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)11.8%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)13.9%2.8
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.1%2.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.1%2.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)10.8%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)11.1%2.0
9. Anthony Volpe (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+117-155
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.2%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.2%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)11.8%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.5%2.0
6. Jahmai Jones (R)9.6%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)10.3%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)12.5%2.0
9. Ben Malgeri (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+123-163
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.2%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)15.0%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.8%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)11.0%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)13.0%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (R)9.9%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)10.0%3.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.8%2.2
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.2%2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-110-120
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB17.0%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.1 BF
Expected batters faced16.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.4%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.3%2.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)11.2%2.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)11.8%2.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)12.1%2.0
6. Jonny DeLuca (R)13.3%2.0
7. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)12.5%1.1
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-174+131
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)13.8%3.0
4. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.5%3.0
6. José Fermín (R)12.0%2.9
7. Alec Burleson (L)9.6%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-117-114
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)12.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)12.9%3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R)14.5%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
5. Junior Perez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)11.7%2.5
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)9.6%2.0
8. Sam Antonacci (L)10.5%2.0
9. Drew Romo (R)9.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-156+117
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB13.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)14.1%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.3%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.4%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.4%2.5
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.9%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)9.8%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)9.0%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.2%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+125-165
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)12.7%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.0%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.4%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.0%2.8
6. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.2%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)10.2%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-157+118
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)12.2%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)14.6%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)12.3%3.0
4. Dylan Crews (R)13.8%3.0
5. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.8%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)12.9%2.7
7. Nasim Nuñez (R)13.6%2.0
8. José Tena (L)12.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.1%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)13.1%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.6%3.0
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.3%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.3%3.0
5. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.3%3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)13.4%3.0
7. Luis Urías (R)9.7%2.1
8. Myles Straw (R)19.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-155+116
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nate Eaton (R)11.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)14.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)13.2%2.8
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.9%2.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)12.7%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)10.7%2.0
7. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)12.9%2.0
9. Anthony Seigler (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.7 BF
Expected batters faced25.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)12.8%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.0%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)11.3%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%3.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.6%3.0
7. Jarred Kelenic (L)10.7%3.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.9%2.7
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.4
6. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-109-122
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.7%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)11.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)13.9%3.0
5. Tyler Freeman (R)12.4%3.0
6. Willi Castro (L)13.2%2.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.8%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-112-118
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.5%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.4%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)15.2%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)12.1%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%2.3
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%2.0
7. Will Wagner (L)10.8%2.0
8. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+122-163
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)13.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)13.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.3%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.2%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)10.6%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)12.2%3.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.4%2.2
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings-109-122
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)11.7%2.6
6. Joey Meneses (R)11.7%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Max Muncy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings+106-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB5.7%
vs RHB15.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)11.6%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.7%3.0
5. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)10.4%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.2%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.4%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+121-162
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)15.6%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)14.4%2.9
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.5%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.8%2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.4%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)10.3%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)10.1%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.1 BF
Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.1%3.0
2. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.9%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.8%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)14.1%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)8.5%3.0
7. Christian Moore (R)10.7%3.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.8%2.1
9. Jose Siri (R)15.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.6%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.4%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.8%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.0%3.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)10.2%2.7
6. Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%2.0
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.4%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.4%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.3%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.9%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)11.3%3.0
5. Randy Arozarena (R)14.0%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)11.5%2.5
7. Cole Young (L)11.9%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)11.1%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-119-111
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB15.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.6%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.0%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)10.6%2.3
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.9%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.1%2.0
6. Matt Shaw (R)12.5%2.0
7. Nico Hoerner (R)8.6%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.5%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+135-175
DKDraftKings+127-169
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate17.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.6 BF
Expected batters faced17.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.0%2.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.1%2.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.0%2.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)10.9%2.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)10.4%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)13.3%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)14.0%2.0
8. Tyler O'Neill (R)10.2%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)12.5%1.6
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-147+110
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)15.0%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.1%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)14.2%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.5%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)9.8%3.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)13.8%3.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)12.6%2.1
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-133+100
We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.9%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)12.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)18.1%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)10.8%2.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)12.0%2.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)14.7%2.0
7. Derek Hill (R)12.0%2.0
8. Bryson Stott (L)10.3%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)9.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
23 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Kodai SengaP
NYMvsCHC· proj #28
7ERFinal
2
Jesús LuzardoP
PHI@WSH· proj #14
5ERFinal
T2
Shane BazP
BAL@LAA· proj #25
5ERFinal
4
Casey MizeP
DETvsNYY· proj #6
4ERFinal
T4
JR RitchieP
ATL@SD· proj #20
4ERFinal
T4
Shane BieberP
TORvsHOU· proj #23
4ERFinal
7
Carlos RodónP
NYY@DET· proj #7
3ERFinal
T7
Sean SullivanP
COLvsBOS· proj #16
3ERFinal
T7
Mitch KellerP
PITvsSEA· proj #27
3ERFinal
10
Shane McClanahanP
TBvsKC· proj #5
2ERFinal
T10
Justin WrobleskiP
LAD@MIN· proj #8
2ERFinal
T10
Parker MessickP
CLE@CWS· proj #11
2ERFinal
T10
Edward CabreraP
CHC@NYM· proj #12
2ERFinal
T10
Peter LambertP
HOU@TOR· proj #15
2ERFinal
T10
Aaron CivaleP
ATH@SF· proj #18
2ERFinal
T10
Zack LittellP
WSHvsPHI· proj #31
2ERFinal
17
Cal QuantrillP
TEX@MIA· proj #3
1ERFinal
T17
Kendry RojasP
MINvsLAD· proj #4
1ERFinal
T17
Luinder AvilaP
KC@TB· proj #9
1ERFinal
T17
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsCLE· proj #13
1ERFinal
T17
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIAvsTEX· proj #17
1ERFinal
T17
Sonny GrayP
BOS@COL· proj #19
1ERFinal
T17
George KirbyP
SEA@PIT· proj #21
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/367%
season 52%+15 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/850%
season 52%-2 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1844%
season building
Top 50
12/2843%
season building
Full slate
12/2843%
season 49%-6 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Wandy Peralta (SD) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER, with PJ Poulin (WSH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Wandy Peralta
Wandy Peralta (SD) tops the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER vs ATL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
PJ Poulin (WSH) (91) — about 1.1 ER vs PHI.
Cal Quantrill (TEX) (76) — about 1.5 ER vs MIA.
Kendry Rojas (MIN) (75) — about 1.4 ER vs LAD.
Shane McClanahan (TB) (52) — about 2.1 ER vs KC.
Casey Mize (DET) (47) — about 2.2 ER vs NYY.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.4 ER. Wandy Peralta finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?
Wandy Peralta (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER against ATL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Wandy Peralta (~0.8 ER), PJ Poulin (~1.1 ER), Cal Quantrill (~1.5 ER), Kendry Rojas (~1.4 ER), Shane McClanahan (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
