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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 20, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

● 2–9 · Top 6MINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup100● 5–8 · End 3PITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup40● 3–1 · Top 5TBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup100● 2–3 · Bot 5BALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup78● 1–4 · Top 4LADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup90● 1–1 · Bot 5SDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup74● 1–3 · Top 3NYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup77● 0–0 · Bot 3SFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup508:05 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup64● 0–0 · Bot 1CWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup81● 0–0 · Bot 1MIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup598:40 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup779:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup639:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup7410:10 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup100
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)10.6%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)10.2%2.4
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%2.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.3%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)12.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.6%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-117-113
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)12.0%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)9.6%2.7
4. Jorge Soler (R)10.3%2.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.1%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)11.3%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)9.2%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)10.9%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)8.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 1.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)11.1%3.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)11.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.5%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.5%2.9
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.4%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)9.2%2.0
7. David Fry (R)11.6%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.6%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-171+128

We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)12.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.4%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)12.3%2.5
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.7%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.6%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)12.0%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.2%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)9.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings-116-114

We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.8%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)13.1%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)10.2%2.3
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)8.9%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)10.5%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)14.0%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)12.2%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-121-109

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.7%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)14.0%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)9.3%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)15.4%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)13.6%2.6
6. Leody Taveras (R)10.7%2.0
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.5%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)9.7%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+109-144
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.8%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.9%3.0
4. George Springer (R)14.4%2.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.4%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)12.3%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)9.9%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)15.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-112-118

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.2%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)9.4%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)10.0%2.7
3. Cole Carrigg (R)15.6%2.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)13.7%2.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)9.1%2.0
6. Willi Castro (R)11.8%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)10.1%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)10.3%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-148+112

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.6%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)12.8%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)15.6%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.5%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)14.0%3.0
5. Jorge Polanco (L)10.4%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)11.3%3.0
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)10.3%2.3
8. Brett Baty (L)14.2%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada-115-125
FANFanatics+115-160

We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.4 BF

Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.2%2.4
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%2.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)9.7%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)10.3%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)11.7%2.0
8. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOVBovada+140-180
DKDraftKings+129-173

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)11.1%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)10.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)10.4%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)12.4%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.5%2.1
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.8%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)10.5%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)13.7%2.0
9. Eli White (R)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-137+103

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)12.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)17.0%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)13.0%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.3%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)13.5%2.7
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.4%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)13.1%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.9%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-129-103

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.4%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)13.9%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)12.2%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%2.4
6. Masyn Winn (R)9.5%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)9.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)10.0%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+110-146

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.4%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)14.1%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)13.2%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)12.2%2.3
5. Ian Happ (L)11.6%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.0%2.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)10.8%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)12.3%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-170+120

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)13.6%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.5%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)10.1%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (R)10.9%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.1%2.2
7. Victor Robles (R)10.7%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)10.4%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+112-149
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.5%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)12.1%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)13.7%2.8
5. Dillon Dingler (R)10.1%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.4%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.3%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-140+105

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)10.8%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)10.8%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)10.4%3.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)15.3%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.1%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)11.4%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
FANFanatics-180+125

We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ronel Blanco's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)13.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.9%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)13.1%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)11.7%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)12.6%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)12.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings-103-129

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.1%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.2%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)12.2%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)13.7%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.3%3.0
7. Dane Myers (R)10.4%2.9
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
DKDraftKings-155+116

We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)13.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)14.1%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)14.9%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.4%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)14.3%3.0
6. Kyle Teel (L)11.7%2.2
7. Braden Montgomery (L)13.5%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)12.2%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)12.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)9.7%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)15.3%3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)11.4%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)10.9%2.4
7. Willy Adames (R)13.1%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)10.7%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+120-160

We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)11.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)12.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)12.3%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.1%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.1%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.9%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)12.9%2.7
8. Connor Wong (R)9.4%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+120-160

We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)10.1%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)11.8%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)10.5%2.6
7. Brooks Lee (L)10.4%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)9.0%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)13.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-111-119
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB16.6%
vs RHB8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)10.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.9%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.8%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.6
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)10.9%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.9%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)13.6%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)10.6%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-143+108
FANFanatics-170+120

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)14.5%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.9%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (R)13.1%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)9.6%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)9.5%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)11.6%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)12.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)12.9%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)13.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+107-143
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)12.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)15.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)10.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)15.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.2%2.5
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.8%2.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)12.3%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)13.7%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+115-152

We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)13.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)13.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.4%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.0%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.7%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)12.4%2.2
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.1%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)10.8%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+127-169
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)14.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)13.3%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.2%3.0
4. Ty France (R)12.6%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)11.5%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)9.9%2.2
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.4%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)10.6%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB14.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)13.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.6%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)11.7%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.3%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)11.7%2.3
6. Nolan Arenado (R)13.2%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)9.8%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)12.0%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-147+111
FANFanatics-165+115

We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate15.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.2%
vs RHB14.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)13.0%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)12.6%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)12.2%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)9.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)14.3%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)11.6%3.0
7. Harry Ford (R)13.6%2.5
8. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)13.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-111-120
FANFanatics-120-120

We project 3.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays