Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Sunday, October 11, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Tarik Skubal. The righty is driving in runs at .123 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Tarik Skubal has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tarik Skubal too — .333 across 9 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Will Smith (LAD) (91) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: an excellent bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (90) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (85) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (82) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .137 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (79) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Max Muncy (LAD) (78) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .123 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .135 against lefties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays