Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, October 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Tarik Skubal. The righty is scoring at .199 R/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Tarik Skubal has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tarik Skubal too — .333 across 9 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (84) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Will Smith (LAD) (80) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .137 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (64) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- William Contreras (MIL) (55) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (54) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (53) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .123 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (53) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a league-average bat at .115 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .199 against lefties this year.
- William Contreras (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .142 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays