MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

6:40 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup346:40 PM ETLADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup1007:05 PM ETPITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup627:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup477:10 PM ETBALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup647:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup177:40 PM ETSFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup247:40 PM ETNYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup348:05 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup358:05 PM ETCWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup348:10 PM ETMIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup318:40 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup119:38 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup349:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup349:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup60
PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.1% K / BF

vs LHB29.7%
vs RHB30.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs NYM7
Jun 26@ NYM5
Jul 1vs PIT10
Jul 7@ CIN14
Jul 12@ DET10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.6%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (L)20.2%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)19.3%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)16.7%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)16.4%2.4
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.4%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)20.3%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs TEX7
Jun 19@ SEA5
Jun 24@ COL9
Jun 29vs WSH8
Jul 5@ LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.0%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)24.7%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.9%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)24.4%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)26.0%2.3
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.6%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)22.5%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.4%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs CIN8
Jun 26@ BOS0
Jul 1vs DET7
Jul 7@ TB3
Jul 12@ WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)19.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)35.1%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.2%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.0%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)22.1%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)22.2%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs NYM7
Jun 21@ NYY7
Jun 27@ PIT10
Jul 2@ MIL4
Jul 8vs PHI2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.1%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.5%3.0
3. Cole Young (L)17.1%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.6%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)27.3%3.0
6. Josh Naylor (L)13.1%2.1
7. Mitch Garver (R)28.4%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)23.9%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)28.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB26.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ CHC3
Jun 25vs TEX4
Jun 30vs NYM7
Jul 6@ SF8
Jul 12@ SD8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.6%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)24.2%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.6%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.8%2.4
7. Richie Palacios (L)17.6%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)18.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ DET5
Jun 13@ WSH4
Jun 26@ CLE4
Jul 3vs TOR4
Jul 10@ TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.8%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)20.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.6%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)23.4%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.3%2.6
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.4%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.1%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)21.7%2.0
9. Dane Myers (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ SEA12
Jun 22@ LAA9
Jun 28vs WSH2
Jul 5@ CIN5
Jul 11vs KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)21.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.4%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.4%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.2%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)26.7%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11@ PIT1
Jun 16vs TB5
Jun 23@ MIN3
Jun 30@ ATH11
Jul 7vs COL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)18.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)24.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)17.9%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)30.7%2.7
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.6%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.1%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ HOU6
Jun 22vs NYY8
Jun 27vs HOU2
Jul 2@ TEX1
Jul 9vs ATH9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.5%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)20.8%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)17.0%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)25.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.7%3.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (R)22.0%2.1
8. Carson Kelly (R)19.4%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ MIL9
Jun 23@ CWS10
Jun 29vs TEX5
Jul 4vs CWS3
Jul 10@ MIA1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)20.9%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)23.2%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)23.8%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)20.7%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.5%2.5
6. Victor Caratini (R)24.3%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R)22.1%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)20.2%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ WSH3
Jun 26vs PHI7
Jul 12vs BOS5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)22.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)19.8%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.3%2.8
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)16.9%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)21.9%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)21.8%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)14.8%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.2%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.3%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)18.9%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R)26.6%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)26.5%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ AZ3
Jun 20@ ATH6
Jun 26vs ATH5
Jul 2@ SEA6
Jul 8@ TEX3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.0%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)24.1%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)24.4%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)16.7%2.7
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.1%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)19.5%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.8%2.0
9. Blaze Jordan (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11@ KC3
Jun 16vs MIN4
Jun 28@ TOR5
Jul 5vs DET4
Jul 11vs HOU6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)17.6%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.3%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)29.5%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)18.9%2.4
6. Kyle Teel (L)28.5%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)18.8%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)19.8%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs MIL4
Jun 16vs PIT6
Jun 21vs LAA8
Jun 27@ LAA5
Jul 3vs MIA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)19.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)13.6%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.5%2.6
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.0%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)22.6%2.0
6. Tyler Locklear (R)22.3%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.3%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.3%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)31.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ KC1
Jun 19vs CLE11
Jun 25@ DET10
Jul 1vs MIN2
Jul 7@ WSH3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)30.2%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.1%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)14.9%2.9
4. Liam Hicks (L)11.9%2.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)28.0%2.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)18.9%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)23.7%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)23.2%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ KC2
Jun 24vs AZ3
Jun 30@ ATL9
Jul 5@ CHC3
Jul 11vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.5%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)25.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.5%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.1%2.8
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.5%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.7%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)22.1%2.0
8. Oswald Peraza (R)28.4%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB17.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs AZ3
Jun 24vs ATH4
Jun 29@ AZ3
Jul 5@ COL5
Jul 11vs COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)28.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.7%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)23.1%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.5%2.8
6. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)15.9%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)22.6%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ SEA6
May 24@ SF1
Jul 1@ BAL7
Jul 7vs BOS3
Jul 12vs ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)27.8%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)25.8%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)19.0%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.3%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)24.9%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)26.9%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)25.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)20.1%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ COL1
Jun 25vs SEA4
Jun 30@ PHI6
Jul 5@ WSH0
Jul 11vs MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)26.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.5%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.0%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)21.5%2.1
7. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)24.4%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17vs CLE6
Jun 23@ CIN10
Jun 30vs CIN7
Jul 5@ AZ4
Jul 11@ PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)26.4%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.2%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)18.1%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)19.6%2.3
5. Jorge Polanco (L)19.6%2.0
6. Jared Young (L)20.1%2.0
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.2%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.0%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ LAD7
Jun 22vs KC5
Jun 28vs AZ5
Jul 4@ HOU2
Jul 9vs NYY2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.0%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.8%2.4
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.9%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.2%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.5%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.8%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)14.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.9 BF

Expected batters faced16.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs HOU3
Jun 23vs LAD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)16.4%2.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)24.5%2.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)18.2%2.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.5%2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)28.8%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.4%2.0
7. David Fry (R)29.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)26.8%1.9
9. Petey Halpin (L)24.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kendry Rojas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%
vs RHB16.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs CIN4
Jun 21@ PHI5
Jun 27@ MIL2
Jul 3vs STL3
Jul 9@ BAL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)20.8%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)26.5%2.3
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.6%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)24.8%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.0%2.0
8. James Outman (L)24.1%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ TEX7
Jun 26vs LAD5
Jul 1@ CHC6
Jul 6vs AZ4
Jul 11vs TOR1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.7%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.6%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)24.2%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)26.6%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)21.6%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.4%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)22.4%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0
9. Eli White (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.8 BF

Expected batters faced17.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 21@ WSH1
Jun 26@ SF1
Jul 1vs STL6
Jul 6vs NYM5
Jul 11@ STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.4%2.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.2%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)20.7%2.0
4. Ty France (R)19.5%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.5%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.2%2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.3%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.4%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)17.6%1.8

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%
vs RHB18.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs PIT5
Jun 27@ MIN1
Jul 2vs MIA1
Jul 7@ LAD5
Jul 12@ SF1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)25.4%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)19.4%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)22.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)19.0%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)21.9%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)18.5%2.0
7. Harry Ford (R)22.3%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)18.0%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ WSH5
Jun 23@ TB6
Jun 28@ CWS4
Jul 5vs PHI4
Jul 10@ BAL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)25.7%2.1
5. Heliot Ramos (R)26.6%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.8%2.0
7. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.1%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs TEX4
Jun 28@ STL1
Jul 3@ ATH2
Jul 8vs SEA3
Jul 12vs CLE1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.6%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.5%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)20.8%2.4
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)23.3%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)17.0%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)28.8%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)29.5%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.4% K / BF

vs LHB15.3%
vs RHB16.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ NYM3
May 6vs MIN3
May 12@ CIN2
Jun 29@ BOS3
Jul 6vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.3%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)21.2%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)19.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.1%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)17.2%2.7
6. Willi Castro (L)25.0%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)24.3%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)16.0%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays