College Football Predictions — 2026 Week 1

97 of 98 games with an FBS team on the field are priced, last run Sep 10, 1:09 AM ET: our projected score for each side, the margin, the total and how often the home team wins it, next to the book's spread. Margin is home minus road, so a plus sign means we like the home team.

Download CSVSame rows, same order, one file per week.

Kickoff (ET)	Road	Home	Road pts	Home pts	Margin	Total	Home win	Book	Final
Sat Aug 29, 12:00 PM	North Carolina	TCU	20.5	33.1	+12.6	52.0	0.800	+8.5	15–10
Sat Aug 29, 3:00 PM	San José State	USC	19.6	44.9	+25.3	65.0	0.949	+38.5	26–42
Sat Aug 29, 3:30 PM	NC State	Virginia	22.3	31.3	+9.0	52.0	0.726	+4.0	8–34
Sat Aug 29, 5:30 PM	Jacksonville State	North Dakota State							7–33
Sat Aug 29, 6:30 PM	Sacramento State	Eastern Michigan	28.3	30.0	+1.6	58.0	0.543	+8.5	17–28
Sat Aug 29, 7:00 PM	New Mexico State	Florida State	18.9	36.3	+17.4	55.0	0.878	+31.5	17–34
Sat Aug 29, 7:00 PM	Hawai'i	Stanford	24.1	22.9	-1.2	47.0	0.469	+4.5	27–37
Sat Aug 29, 10:00 PM	Memphis	UNLV	30.1	39.0	+8.9	69.0	0.713	+4.0	27–21
Thu Sep 3, 6:00 PM	Massachusetts	Rutgers	22.0	51.1	+29.1	72.0	0.969	+28.5	37–21
Thu Sep 3, 7:00 PM	UAlbanyFCS	Buffalo	10.9	41.1	+30.2	51.0	0.983	+18.5	17–21
Thu Sep 3, 7:00 PM	MerrimackFCS	Delaware	13.7	44.6	+30.8	58.0	0.982	+28.5	7–42
Thu Sep 3, 7:00 PM	West GeorgiaFCS	Kennesaw State	13.3	44.5	+31.3	57.5	0.984	+22.5	0–47
Thu Sep 3, 7:00 PM	Bethune-CookmanFCS	UCF	11.5	46.6	+35.1	58.0	0.992	+42.5	6–73
Thu Sep 3, 7:00 PM	Akron	Wake Forest	17.5	25.6	+8.1	42.0	0.717	+24.5	16–38
Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM	Colorado	Georgia Tech	22.2	36.6	+14.4	58.0	0.825	+6.5	14–13
Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM	Eastern IllinoisFCS	Minnesota	10.7	35.6	+24.9	45.0	0.965	+42.5	7–59
Thu Sep 3, 8:00 PM	Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS	Missouri	10.4	43.5	+33.0	53.0	0.989	+55.5	14–54
Thu Sep 3, 9:00 PM	UAB	Illinois	22.8	45.2	+22.4	68.0	0.925	+25.5	23–42
Thu Sep 3, 9:00 PM	IdahoFCS	Utah	16.2	54.3	+38.1	69.0	0.994	+37.5	14–66
Fri Sep 4, 6:30 PM	San José State	Eastern Michigan	20.3	25.1	+4.7	44.0	0.635	+2.5	27–21
Fri Sep 4, 7:00 PM	North Carolina A&TFCS	Georgia State	15.8	42.7	+27.0	58.0	0.964	+27.5	10–59
Fri Sep 4, 7:00 PM	Indiana StateFCS	Purdue	18.2	40.9	+22.6	58.0	0.931	+35.5	19–44
Fri Sep 4, 8:00 PM	Long Island UniversityFCS	Kansas	15.4	41.6	+26.3	56.0	0.961	+42.0	6–51
Fri Sep 4, 8:00 PM	Toledo	Michigan State	26.2	21.9	-4.4	48.0	0.384	+10.5	20–30
Fri Sep 4, 8:00 PM	UTEP	Oklahoma	12.0	38.8	+26.9	51.0	0.969	+41.5	0–51
Fri Sep 4, 9:00 PM	Miami	Stanford	33.3	18.9	-14.4	51.0	0.167	-23.5	45–6
Fri Sep 4, 9:00 PM	Fresno State	USC	19.5	32.6	+13.1	51.0	0.808	+21.5	0–39
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	East Carolina	Alabama	19.1	32.4	+13.3	51.0	0.814	+28.0	10–48
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	BryantFCS	Army	10.5	45.6	+35.2	55.0	0.992	+36.5	3–59
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	Tarleton StateFCS	Bowling Green	24.2	27.3	+3.1	51.0	0.582	+2.5	20–13
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	Oregon State	Houston	17.7	33.6	+15.9	51.0	0.860	+21.0	20–33
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	North Texas	Indiana	19.7	41.8	+22.1	61.0	0.924	+40.0	16–52
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	Liberty	James Madison	14.9	41.0	+26.1	55.0	0.960	+6.0	13–20
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	Ohio	Nebraska	20.5	32.1	+11.5	52.0	0.780	+24.0	21–49
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	New HampshireFCS	Syracuse	15.5	35.1	+19.6	50.0	0.908	+35.5	3–66
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	LafayetteFCS	UConn	16.8	44.5	+27.7	61.0	0.966	+21.5	7–56
Sat Sep 5, 12:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	West Virginia	20.6	30.6	+10.0	51.0	0.750	+21.0	24–31
Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM	Ball State	Ohio State	10.7	49.8	+39.1	59.0	0.997	+49.5	3–56
Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM	Miami (OH)	Pittsburgh	17.9	30.9	+13.0	48.0	0.815	+16.5	14–59
Sat Sep 5, 12:45 PM	Kent State	South Carolina	16.8	38.7	+21.9	55.0	0.928	+35.5	0–57
Sat Sep 5, 1:00 PM	DuquesneFCS	Air Force	16.6	48.4	+31.7	65.0	0.981	+31.5	0–34
Sat Sep 5, 1:00 PM	Southeast Missouri StateFCS	Iowa State	9.1	51.5	+42.4	60.0	0.998	+30.5	10–38
Sat Sep 5, 1:00 PM	Youngstown StateFCS	Kentucky	17.3	40.8	+23.5	58.0	0.938	+22.5	13–45
Sat Sep 5, 2:00 PM	Rhode IslandFCS	Temple	19.4	36.6	+17.2	55.0	0.873	+14.5	14–38
Sat Sep 5, 3:00 PM	Tennessee StateFCS	Georgia	7.2	57.1	+49.9	64.0	1.000	+46.5	3–63
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	MaineFCS	App State	14.7	34.0	+19.3	48.0	0.907	+19.5	3–55
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Baylor	Auburn	21.7	34.1	+12.4	55.0	0.797	+7.5	16–17
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	The CitadelFCS	Charlotte	15.4	36.6	+21.2	51.0	0.926	+20.0	43–41
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Boston College	Cincinnati	23.9	38.8	+14.9	62.0	0.832	+7.0	15–34
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Tulane	Duke	28.9	32.0	+3.1	60.0	0.582	+7.5	3–17
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	TowsonFCS	Navy	13.5	45.4	+31.9	58.0	0.984	+31.5	15–42
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	FordhamFCS	North Dakota State	6.6	54.1	+47.5	61.0	1.000	+41.5	0–38
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Boise State	Oregon	17.5	37.3	+19.8	54.0	0.907	+24.5	27–34
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Marshall	Penn State	20.4	40.0	+19.6	59.0	0.901	+23.5	0–45
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	FurmanFCS	Tennessee	8.7	55.9	+47.3	65.0	1.000	+48.5	9–56
Sat Sep 5, 3:30 PM	Texas State	Texas	23.1	36.7	+13.6	59.0	0.811	+29.5	7–59
Sat Sep 5, 3:45 PM	Oklahoma State	Tulsa	22.3	26.9	+4.5	48.0	0.619	-13.5	10–24
Sat Sep 5, 4:15 PM	North AlabamaFCS	Arkansas	12.3	51.5	+39.2	63.0	0.996	+40.5	14–31
Sat Sep 5, 4:15 PM	Northern Illinois	Iowa	13.1	36.9	+23.8	49.0	0.952	+31.5	0–40
Sat Sep 5, 5:00 PM	Alcorn StateFCS	Southern Miss	13.1	42.0	+29.0	55.0	0.974	+17.5	3–49
Sat Sep 5, 6:00 PM	Wyoming	Colorado State	31.9	22.2	-9.7	54.0	0.258	+3.0	13–35
Sat Sep 5, 6:00 PM	Norfolk StateFCS	Old Dominion	9.1	46.6	+37.5	55.0	0.997	+40.5	10–31
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Charleston SouthernFCS	Georgia Southern	12.8	43.0	+30.2	55.0	0.981	+26.5	0–31
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Eastern KentuckyFCS	Jacksonville State	12.1	38.8	+26.8	51.0	0.970	+20.5	7–49
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	NichollsFCS	Kansas State	10.5	43.3	+32.8	54.0	0.990	+41.5	3–71
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Arkansas State	Memphis	20.7	34.6	+14.0	55.0	0.820	+11.0	24–42
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Houston ChristianFCS	Rice	15.2	35.8	+20.6	51.0	0.922	+22.5	3–31
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	SE LouisianaFCS	South Alabama	15.8	38.6	+22.9	54.0	0.938	+12.5	14–39
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Florida International	South Florida	17.9	39.8	+21.9	57.0	0.927	+14.5	9–19
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Missouri State	Texas A&M	16.5	39.8	+23.3	55.0	0.940	+40.5	0–50
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Abilene ChristianFCS	Texas Tech	7.9	51.4	+43.5	59.0	0.998	+43.0	10–33
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Sam Houston	Troy	15.5	37.1	+21.5	52.0	0.930	+16.5	21–24
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Idaho StateFCS	Utah State	13.7	39.8	+26.1	52.0	0.961	+13.5	29–17
Sat Sep 5, 7:00 PM	Austin PeayFCS	Vanderbilt	14.6	52.3	+37.7	66.0	0.994	+28.5	9–28
Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM	Northwestern StateFCS	Louisiana Tech	8.5	52.9	+44.5	61.0	0.999	+44.5	6–80
Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM	Western Michigan	Michigan	19.4	29.1	+9.7	48.0	0.750	+27.5	12–13
Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM	UL Monroe	Mississippi State	15.2	40.7	+25.5	55.0	0.958	+28.5	13–62
Sat Sep 5, 7:30 PM	VMIFCS	Virginia Tech	9.0	50.3	+41.3	59.0	0.998	+55.5	3–73
Sat Sep 5, 7:45 PM	Florida Atlantic	Florida	19.5	35.8	+16.3	55.0	0.860	+26.5	21–66
Sat Sep 5, 7:45 PM	Murray StateFCS	Middle Tennessee	13.2	45.7	+32.6	58.0	0.987	+21.5	14–38
Sat Sep 5, 8:00 PM	Utah TechFCS	BYU	8.2	53.4	+45.3	62.0	0.999	+51.5	7–63
Sat Sep 5, 8:00 PM	LamarFCS	Louisiana	13.7	33.7	+20.0	47.0	0.920	+20.5	7–38
Sat Sep 5, 8:00 PM	HamptonFCS	Maryland	10.1	41.2	+31.1	51.0	0.987	+45.5	0–62
Sat Sep 5, 8:00 PM	South Dakota StateFCS	Northwestern	17.6	34.3	+16.7	51.0	0.871	+12.5	18–34
Sat Sep 5, 9:00 PM	MercyhurstFCS	New Mexico State	11.4	40.1	+28.7	51.0	0.978	+28.5	14–51
Sat Sep 5, 9:30 PM	Northern ArizonaFCS	Arizona	9.9	50.4	+40.5	59.0	0.998	+31.5	7–35
Sat Sep 5, 9:30 PM	Portland StateFCS	San Diego State	8.9	45.1	+36.2	54.0	0.996	+40.5	20–53
Sat Sep 5, 9:40 PM	Clemson	LSU	20.6	26.1	+5.5	45.0	0.647	+10.0	10–51
Sat Sep 5, 10:00 PM	Morgan StateFCS	Arizona State	8.2	47.4	+39.2	55.0	0.997	+44.0	7–70
Sat Sep 5, 10:00 PM	UNLV	Hawai'i	26.2	30.5	+4.3	55.0	0.608	-3.0	21–6
Sat Sep 5, 10:00 PM	Central Michigan	New Mexico	25.5	29.6	+4.1	55.0	0.602	+10.5	7–38
Sat Sep 5, 10:00 PM	Mississippi Valley StateFCS	Sacramento State	8.1	44.4	+36.3	52.0	0.995	+37.5	0–52
Sat Sep 5, 10:30 PM	UCLA	California	21.1	33.0	+11.8	54.0	0.780	-2.5	45–24
Sat Sep 5, 10:30 PM	Western Kentucky	Nevada	26.7	24.1	-2.7	50.5	0.429	-1.5	14–49
Sun Sep 6, 4:00 PM	Washington State	Washington	19.8	31.3	+11.5	51.0	0.779	+23.5	10–24
Sun Sep 6, 7:30 PM	Wisconsin	Notre Dame	14.2	39.0	+24.8	52.0	0.956	+20.5	13–41
Sun Sep 6, 7:30 PM	Louisville	Ole Miss	18.6	34.6	+16.0	52.0	0.859	+6.5	38–41
Mon Sep 7, 7:30 PM	SMU	Florida State	25.3	29.8	+4.5	55.0	0.617	-3.0	27–24

The scores come out of a drive-by-drive simulation of each game. Margin is the gap between the two projected scores, and Home win is how often the home team won the sim. Book is the sportsbook consensus spread, flipped to the same sign as our margin. Games more than ten days out aren't priced yet, so those cells stay blank. Every one of these gets graded on the matchups board. Model ncaaf-sim-1/10of20.