College Football Predictions — 2026 Week 5
59 of 59 games with an FBS team on the field are priced, last run Oct 11, 8:35 AM ET: our projected score for each side, the margin, the total and how often the home team wins it, next to the book's spread. Margin is home minus road, so a plus sign means we like the home team.
Download CSVSame rows, same order, one file per week.
| Kickoff (ET) | Road | Home | Road pts | Home pts | Margin | Total | Home win | Book | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 1, 8:00 PM | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State | 20.0 | 22.5 | +2.5 | 41.0 | 0.574 | +2.0 | 13–34 |
| Thu Oct 1, 9:00 PM | North Texas | Tulsa | 31.9 | 26.1 | -5.8 | 57.0 | 0.347 | -3.0 | 45–44 |
| Fri Oct 2, 7:00 PM | Liberty | Delaware | 24.9 | 18.5 | -6.4 | 43.0 | 0.321 | -7.5 | 30–14 |
| Fri Oct 2, 7:00 PM | Pittsburgh | Virginia Tech | 23.5 | 20.3 | -3.1 | 43.0 | 0.412 | +2.0 | 35–33 |
| Fri Oct 2, 8:00 PM | Penn State | Northwestern | 22.7 | 29.4 | +6.7 | 51.0 | 0.681 | -2.5 | 13–34 |
| Sat Oct 3, 11:00 AM | Memphis | Charlotte | 36.1 | 14.5 | -21.5 | 50.0 | 0.061 | -18.5 | 59–8 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Navy | Air Force | 20.8 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 0.500 | +3.0 | 9–14 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | UCF | Houston | 19.1 | 29.5 | +10.4 | 48.0 | 0.773 | +10.5 | 17–27 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | West Virginia | Iowa State | 24.8 | 32.1 | +7.2 | 57.0 | 0.689 | +3.0 | 42–45 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Middle Tennessee | Kansas | 17.6 | 30.6 | +13.0 | 47.0 | 0.827 | +21.0 | 0–55 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Michigan | Minnesota | 21.9 | 20.9 | -1.0 | 42.0 | 0.470 | -6.5 | 14–20 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Alabama | Mississippi State | 31.5 | 24.8 | -6.7 | 55.0 | 0.322 | -5.5 | 56–23 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Notre Dame | North Carolina | 30.0 | 16.2 | -13.8 | 45.0 | 0.153 | -21.0 | 37–26 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Boston College | SMU | 17.5 | 29.0 | +11.5 | 46.0 | 0.798 | +21.5 | 16–25 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Syracuse | UConn | 24.8 | 27.8 | +3.0 | 52.0 | 0.586 | -6.5 | 42–41 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:00 PM | Stanford | Wake Forest | 16.9 | 39.8 | +23.0 | 56.0 | 0.947 | +14.5 | 3–57 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:30 PM | Michigan State | Wisconsin | 18.4 | 28.3 | +9.9 | 46.0 | 0.768 | +8.5 | 3–31 |
| Sat Oct 3, 12:45 PM | Vanderbilt | Georgia | 18.1 | 38.2 | +20.1 | 55.0 | 0.922 | +26.0 | 14–38 |
| Sat Oct 3, 1:00 PM | Western Michigan | Buffalo | 23.6 | 20.4 | -3.2 | 43.0 | 0.407 | -13.0 | 20–17 |
| Sat Oct 3, 2:00 PM | Toledo | Ball State | 33.8 | 20.3 | -13.5 | 54.0 | 0.173 | -20.5 | 39–24 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Akron | Central Michigan | 19.5 | 23.6 | +4.1 | 43.0 | 0.621 | +7.0 | 17–41 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Virginia | Florida State | 25.3 | 24.0 | -1.3 | 48.0 | 0.464 | -1.5 | 7–38 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Old Dominion | Georgia State | 15.3 | 27.8 | +12.6 | 43.0 | 0.827 | +2.5 | 10–42 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Ohio State | Iowa | 26.5 | 22.5 | -4.0 | 48.0 | 0.390 | -14.5 | 31–14 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Ohio | Kent State | 24.7 | 19.7 | -5.1 | 44.0 | 0.358 | -3.5 | 13–10 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts | 21.3 | 26.2 | +4.9 | 47.0 | 0.639 | +5.5 | 38–14 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) | 20.0 | 25.2 | +5.2 | 44.0 | 0.650 | +10.5 | 24–20 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Louisville | NC State | 30.1 | 27.7 | -2.4 | 57.0 | 0.436 | -5.5 | 28–31 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Wyoming | North Dakota State | 11.9 | 25.6 | +13.8 | 37.0 | 0.864 | +17.5 | 0–28 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | Auburn | Tennessee | 18.2 | 26.6 | +8.4 | 44.0 | 0.730 | +6.5 | 14–24 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | SamfordFCS | UAB | 17.7 | 24.8 | +7.1 | 41.0 | 0.706 | +31.0 | 14–33 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM | California | UNLV | 17.9 | 20.8 | +2.9 | 38.0 | 0.588 | +1.5 | 31–39 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:45 PM | Marshall | James Madison | 19.4 | 37.7 | +18.3 | 57.0 | 0.897 | +15.5 | 17–45 |
| Sat Oct 3, 3:50 PM | Florida | Missouri | 22.2 | 31.4 | +9.1 | 53.0 | 0.735 | -5.5 | 17–45 |
| Sat Oct 3, 4:00 PM | Maryland | Nebraska | 14.4 | 29.3 | +14.9 | 43.0 | 0.868 | +15.5 | 23–48 |
| Sat Oct 3, 4:00 PM | UTEP | New Mexico | 10.9 | 36.2 | +25.3 | 47.0 | 0.973 | +23.5 | 7–61 |
| Sat Oct 3, 4:15 PM | Purdue | Illinois | 30.8 | 35.7 | +4.8 | 65.0 | 0.624 | +9.5 | 24–17 |
| Sat Oct 3, 4:15 PM | Kentucky | South Carolina | 24.8 | 27.0 | +2.1 | 51.0 | 0.560 | +2.5 | 35–34 |
| Sat Oct 3, 6:00 PM | Oregon State | Colorado State | 38.4 | 26.3 | -12.1 | 64.0 | 0.207 | -7.0 | 56–26 |
| Sat Oct 3, 6:00 PM | Texas SouthernFCS | Florida Atlantic | 19.4 | 37.1 | +17.7 | 56.0 | 0.891 | +47.5 | 10–66 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:00 PM | Georgia Southern | Coastal Carolina | 25.9 | 22.4 | -3.5 | 47.0 | 0.404 | -2.5 | 31–24 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:00 PM | UTSA | Rice | 23.5 | 18.0 | -5.5 | 41.0 | 0.337 | -12.0 | 16–14 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:00 PM | UL Monroe | South Alabama | 22.8 | 41.7 | +18.9 | 64.0 | 0.899 | +13.5 | 35–52 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:00 PM | BYU | TCU | 19.9 | 21.2 | +1.3 | 40.0 | 0.538 | -6.0 | 17–10 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:00 PM | Arkansas | Texas A&M | 17.6 | 27.4 | +9.8 | 44.0 | 0.760 | +13.5 | 7–34 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Utah State | Boise State | 18.1 | 33.1 | +15.0 | 51.0 | 0.857 | +19.5 | 18–37 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Miami | Clemson | 30.7 | 15.6 | -15.1 | 46.0 | 0.133 | -14.5 | 41–13 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Texas Tech | Colorado | 23.3 | 15.5 | -7.9 | 38.0 | 0.273 | -13.5 | 29–7 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Army | Louisiana Tech | 24.6 | 27.5 | +2.9 | 51.0 | 0.579 | +1.5 | 29–31 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Temple | South Florida | 24.9 | 31.4 | +6.5 | 55.0 | 0.672 | +5.5 | 17–13 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM | Washington | USC | 24.9 | 36.4 | +11.5 | 61.0 | 0.782 | +7.5 | 21–25 |
| Sat Oct 3, 7:45 PM | McNeeseFCS | LSU | 14.1 | 34.5 | +20.4 | 48.0 | 0.934 | 14–63 | |
| Sat Oct 3, 8:00 PM | Arkansas State | Louisiana | 20.1 | 30.4 | +10.3 | 50.0 | 0.767 | +5.5 | 20–23 |
| Sat Oct 3, 8:00 PM | Indiana | Rutgers | 40.0 | 21.0 | -19.0 | 61.0 | 0.097 | -24.5 | 47–15 |
| Sat Oct 3, 9:30 PM | Fresno State | Washington State | 21.4 | 16.1 | -5.2 | 37.0 | 0.343 | +2.5 | 26–6 |
| Sat Oct 3, 10:30 PM | Baylor | Arizona State | 22.4 | 21.8 | -0.5 | 44.0 | 0.486 | +3.5 | 55–19 |
| Sat Oct 3, 10:30 PM | Texas State | San Diego State | 29.7 | 18.3 | -11.4 | 47.0 | 0.203 | -9.5 | 29–31 |
| Sat Oct 3, 11:00 PM | Cincinnati | Arizona | 22.1 | 30.2 | +8.0 | 51.0 | 0.712 | +7.0 | 7–34 |
| Sat Oct 3, 11:59 PM | San José State | Hawai'i | 21.7 | 21.3 | -0.4 | 42.0 | 0.489 | +2.5 | 20–16 |
The scores come out of a drive-by-drive simulation of each game. Margin is the gap between the two projected scores, and Home win is how often the home team won the sim. Book is the sportsbook consensus spread, flipped to the same sign as our margin. Games more than ten days out aren't priced yet, so those cells stay blank. Every one of these gets graded on the matchups board. Model ncaaf-sim-1/11of20.