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Projected passing touchdowns for every quarterback this week, driven by his team's red-zone trips.
BUF vs DETThu 8 PMJosh AllenQB1.82 pass TD1.5 tdDK-161+21.3%WizEdge
BUF vs DETThu 8 PM1.8td3tdof 1.5
DAL vs WSHSun 4 PMDak PrescottQB1.71 pass TD1.5 tdDK-204+14.0%WizEdge
DAL vs WSHSun 4 PM1.7td4tdof 1.5
LAR vs NYGMon 8 PMMatthew StaffordQB1.68 pass TD1.5 tdFD-178+12.0%WizEdge
LAR vs NYGMon 8 PM1.7td4tdof 1.5
WSH @ DALSun 4 PMJayden DanielsQB1.50 pass TD1.5 tdFD+134+0.0%WizEdge
WSH @ DALSun 4 PM1.5td1tdof 1.5
JAX @ DENSun 4 PMTrevor LawrenceQB1.48 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+125−1.3%WizEdge
JAX @ DENSun 4 PM1.5td0tdof 1.5
KC vs INDSun 8 PMPatrick MahomesQB1.36 pass TD1.5 tdDK-115−9.3%WizEdge
KC vs INDSun 8 PM1.4td3tdof 1.5
PHI @ TENSun 1 PMJalen HurtsQB1.32 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+140−12.0%WizEdge
PHI @ TENSun 1 PM1.3td2tdof 1.5
NYG @ LARMon 8 PMJaxson DartQB1.31 pass TD1.5 tdDK+190−12.7%WizEdge
NYG @ LARMon 8 PM1.3td0tdof 1.5
CHI vs MINSun 1 PMCaleb WilliamsQB1.28 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-105−14.7%WizEdge
CHI vs MINSun 1 PM1.3td0tdof 1.5
HOU vs CINSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB1.26 pass TD1.5 tdFD+112−16.0%WizEdge
HOU vs CINSun 1 PM1.3td0tdof 1.5
TB vs CLESun 1 PMBaker MayfieldQB1.26 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-110−16.0%WizEdge
TB vs CLESun 1 PM1.3td1tdof 1.5
MIN @ CHISun 1 PMCarson WentzQB1.21 pass TD1.5 tdFD+148−19.3%WizEdge
MIN @ CHISun 1 PM1.2td0tdof 1.5
BAL vs NOSun 1 PMLamar JacksonQB1.13 pass TD1.5 tdDK+107−24.7%WizEdge
BAL vs NOSun 1 PM1.1td1tdof 1.5
CAR @ ATLSun 1 PMBryce YoungQB1.09 pass TD1.5 tdDK+115−27.3%WizEdge
CAR @ ATLSun 1 PM1.1td3tdof 1.5
LAC vs LVSun 4 PMJustin HerbertQB1.07 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-115−28.7%WizEdge
LAC vs LVSun 4 PM1.1td1tdof 1.5
ARI vs SEASun 4 PMJacoby BrissettQB1.05 pass TD1.5 tdDK+199−30.0%WizEdge
ARI vs SEASun 4 PM1.1td1tdof 1.5
IND @ KCSun 8 PMDaniel JonesQB0.94 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+188−37.3%WizEdge
IND @ KCSun 8 PM0.9td1tdof 1.5How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
