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Projected passing touchdowns for every quarterback this week, driven by his team's red-zone trips.
BUF vs LACSun 1 PMJosh AllenQB1.72 pass TD1.5 tdFD-156+14.7%WizEdge
BUF vs LACSun 1 PM1.7td0tdof 1.5
BAL @ DALSun 4 PMLamar JacksonQB1.68 pass TD1.5 tdFD-148+12.0%WizEdge
BAL @ DALSun 4 PM1.7td2tdof 1.5
SEA @ WSHSun 1 PMSam DarnoldQB1.66 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+105+10.7%WizEdge
SEA @ WSHSun 1 PM1.7td4tdof 1.5
DET vs NYJSun 1 PMJared GoffQB1.54 pass TD2.5 tdFAN+160−38.4%WizEdge
DET vs NYJSun 1 PM1.5td2tdof 2.5
DAL vs BALSun 4 PMDak PrescottQB1.53 pass TD1.5 tdFD-148+2.0%WizEdge
DAL vs BALSun 4 PM1.5td1tdof 1.5
KC @ MIASun 1 PMPatrick MahomesQB1.39 pass TD1.5 tdFD-174−7.3%WizEdge
KC @ MIASun 1 PM1.4td2tdof 1.5
JAX vs NESun 1 PMTrevor LawrenceQB1.39 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-105−7.3%WizEdge
JAX vs NESun 1 PM1.4td3tdof 1.5
PIT vs CINSun 1 PMAaron RodgersQB1.31 pass TD1.5 tdDK+161−12.7%WizEdge
PIT vs CINSun 1 PM1.3td3tdof 1.5
LAR @ DENSun 8 PMMatthew StaffordQB1.21 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+105−19.3%WizEdge
LAR @ DENSun 8 PM1.2td2tdof 1.5
IND vs HOUSun 1 PMDaniel JonesQB1.20 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+190−20.0%WizEdge
IND vs HOUSun 1 PM1.2td1tdof 1.5
GB vs ATLThu 8 PMJordan LoveQB1.16 pass TD1.5 tdFD-114−22.7%WizEdge
GB vs ATLThu 8 PM1.2td2tdof 1.5
ATL @ GBThu 8 PMMichael Penix Jr.QB1.12 pass TD1.5 tdDK+207−25.3%WizEdge
ATL @ GBThu 8 PM1.1td1tdof 1.5
PHI @ CHIMon 8 PMJalen HurtsQB1.12 pass TD1.5 tdFD+136−25.3%WizEdge
PHI @ CHIMon 8 PM1.1td0tdof 1.5
HOU @ INDSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB1.12 pass TD1.5 tdFD+132−25.3%WizEdge
HOU @ INDSun 1 PM1.1td1tdof 1.5
NYJ @ DETSun 1 PMGeno SmithQB1.12 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+135−25.3%WizEdge
NYJ @ DETSun 1 PM1.1td3tdof 1.5
CLE vs CARSun 1 PMDeshaun WatsonQB1.08 pass TD1.5 tdDK+179−28.0%WizEdge
CLE vs CARSun 1 PM1.1td2tdof 1.5
ARI @ SFSun 4 PMJacoby BrissettQB1.03 pass TD1.5 tdFD+148−31.3%WizEdge
ARI @ SFSun 4 PM1.0td2tdof 1.5
TB vs MINSun 4 PMBaker MayfieldQB1.00 pass TD1.5 tdDK+140−33.3%WizEdge
TB vs MINSun 4 PM1.0td1tdof 1.5How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
