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Projected passing touchdowns for every quarterback this week, driven by his team's red-zone trips.
LAR vs SFThu 8 PMMatthew StaffordQB2.38 pass TD1.5 tdFD-148+58.7%WizEdge
LAR vs SFThu 8 PM2.4td0tdof 1.5
PHI vs WSHSun 4 PMJalen HurtsQB1.93 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+130+28.7%WizEdge
PHI vs WSHSun 4 PM1.9td3tdof 1.5
NYG vs DALSun 8 PMJaxson DartQB1.84 pass TD1.5 tdFD+148+22.7%WizEdge
NYG vs DALSun 8 PM1.8td3tdof 1.5
CAR vs CHISun 1 PMBryce YoungQB1.53 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+125+2.0%WizEdge
CAR vs CHISun 1 PM1.5td3tdof 1.5
IND vs BALSun 1 PMDaniel JonesQB1.52 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+135+1.3%WizEdge
IND vs BALSun 1 PM1.5td1tdof 1.5
CHI @ CARSun 1 PMCaleb WilliamsQB1.49 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+100−0.7%WizEdge
CHI @ CARSun 1 PM1.5td2tdof 1.5
BAL @ INDSun 1 PMLamar JacksonQB1.38 pass TD1.5 tdDK+110−8.0%WizEdge
BAL @ INDSun 1 PM1.4td1tdof 1.5
TB @ CINSun 1 PMBaker MayfieldQB1.35 pass TD1.5 tdFD-104−10.0%WizEdge
TB @ CINSun 1 PM1.4td0tdof 1.5
JAX vs CLESun 1 PMTrevor LawrenceQB1.32 pass TD1.5 tdFD-102−12.0%WizEdge
JAX vs CLESun 1 PM1.3td4tdof 1.5
MIN vs GBSun 4 PMKyler MurrayQB1.30 pass TD1.5 tdDK+117−13.3%WizEdge
MIN vs GBSun 4 PM1.3td0tdof 1.5
HOU vs BUFSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB1.29 pass TD1.5 tdDK+124−14.0%WizEdge
HOU vs BUFSun 1 PM1.3td2tdof 1.5
LAC vs ARISun 4 PMJustin HerbertQB1.27 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-185−15.3%WizEdge
LAC vs ARISun 4 PM1.3td1tdof 1.5
PIT vs ATLSun 1 PMAaron RodgersQB1.24 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+120−17.3%WizEdge
PIT vs ATLSun 1 PM1.2td1tdof 1.5
KC vs DENMon 8 PMPatrick MahomesQB1.14 pass TD1.5 tdDK+130−24.0%WizEdge
KC vs DENMon 8 PM1.1td2tdof 1.5
LV vs MIASun 4 PMKirk CousinsQB1.02 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+145−32.0%WizEdge
LV vs MIASun 4 PM1.0td3tdof 1.5
ARI @ LACSun 4 PMJacoby BrissettQB0.94 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+160−37.3%WizEdge
ARI @ LACSun 4 PM0.9td1tdof 1.5How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
