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Projected passing touchdowns for every quarterback this week, driven by his team's red-zone trips.
BAL vs TENSun 1 PMLamar JacksonQB1.78 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-115+18.7%WizEdge
BAL vs TENSun 1 PM1.8td2tdof 1.5
CAR vs DETSun 8 PMBryce YoungQB1.69 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-120+12.7%WizEdge
CAR vs DETSun 8 PM1.7td2tdof 1.5
HOU vs DALSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB1.69 pass TD1.5 tdDK-113+12.7%WizEdge
HOU vs DALSun 1 PM1.7td2tdof 1.5
SEA vs LACSun 4 PMSam DarnoldQB1.57 pass TD1.5 tdFD-130+4.7%WizEdge
SEA vs LACSun 4 PM1.6td2tdof 1.5
JAX @ CINSun 1 PMTrevor LawrenceQB1.49 pass TD1.5 tdFAN-130−0.7%WizEdge
JAX @ CINSun 1 PM1.5td1tdof 1.5
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PMTyson BagentQB1.46 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+140−2.7%WizEdge
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PM1.5td0tdof 1.5
LAR @ PHISun 1 PMMatthew StaffordQB1.45 pass TD1.5 tdFD-118−3.3%WizEdge
LAR @ PHISun 1 PM1.4td0tdof 1.5
WSH vs INDSun 9 AMMarcus MariotaQB1.43 pass TD1.5 tdFD+162−4.7%WizEdge
WSH vs INDSun 9 AM1.4td0tdof 1.5
MIN vs MIASun 4 PMKyler MurrayQB1.35 pass TD1.5 tdDK+112−10.0%WizEdge
MIN vs MIASun 4 PM1.4td0tdof 1.5
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PMJoe BurrowQB1.28 pass TD1.5 tdFAN-205−14.7%WizEdge
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PM1.3td1tdof 1.5
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PMAaron RodgersQB1.23 pass TD1.5 tdDK+152−18.0%WizEdge
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PM1.2td3tdof 1.5
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PMJacoby BrissettQB1.21 pass TD1.5 tdFD+120−19.3%WizEdge
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PM1.2td2tdof 1.5
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PMDak PrescottQB1.21 pass TD1.5 tdFD-125−19.3%WizEdge
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PM1.2td1tdof 1.5
NYJ @ CHISun 1 PMGeno SmithQB1.20 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+155−20.0%WizEdge
NYJ @ CHISun 1 PM1.2td1tdof 1.5
IND @ WSHSun 9 AMDaniel JonesQB1.20 pass TD1.5 tdDK+107−20.0%WizEdge
IND @ WSHSun 9 AM1.2td0tdof 1.5
NYG vs ARISun 1 PMJameis WinstonQB1.20 pass TD1.5 tdFD+172−20.0%WizEdge
NYG vs ARISun 1 PM1.2td3tdof 1.5
NO vs ATLMon 8 PMTyler ShoughQB1.20 pass TD1.5 tdMGM-120−20.0%WizEdge
NO vs ATLMon 8 PM1.2td1tdof 1.5
KC @ LVSun 4 PMPatrick MahomesQB1.08 pass TD1.5 tdDK-144−28.0%WizEdge
KC @ LVSun 4 PM1.1td2tdof 1.5
LV vs KCSun 4 PMKirk CousinsQB1.05 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+135−30.0%WizEdge
LV vs KCSun 4 PM1.1td2tdof 1.5
ATL @ NOMon 8 PMMichael Penix Jr.QB0.95 pass TD1.5 tdMGM+120−36.7%WizEdge
ATL @ NOMon 8 PM0.9td1tdof 1.5How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
