Bundesliga Match Board — Sunday, October 11, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 39 of 45 on ML, 18 of 45 on Over 2.5, 39 of 45 on BTTS.

Sunday, October 11

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–1

Proj2.1–1.5

Match page →

FC CologneHOME✓50%2.1proj-101fair—mkt—

Draw23%—proj+343fair—mkt—

Borussia MönchengladbachAWAY27%1.5proj+267fair—mkt—

O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 70% ✓1H O1.5 49% ✗

Fandango

FT · 2–1

Proj1.7–1.1

Match page →

SC FreiburgHOME✓51%1.7proj-102fair-134mkt-6.7%

Draw26%—proj+280fair+321mkt+2.6%

Schalke 04AWAY23%1.1proj+333fair+425mktModel lean+4.0%

O2.5 53% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 36% · mkt 40% ✗

Fandango

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).