Bundesliga Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Friday, August 28
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
2:30 PM ET
Proj2.8–1.2
MUNBayern MunichHOME70%2.8proj-230fair-270mkt-3.3%DRWDraw17%—proj+489fair+557mkt+1.8%
VFBVfB StuttgartAWAY13%1.2proj+651fair+745mkt+1.5%O2.5 76%BTTS 66%
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
9:30 AM ET
Proj1.6–1.5
KOEFC CologneHOME41%1.6proj+146fair—mkt—DRWDraw26%—proj+286fair—mkt—
TSGTSG HoffenheimAWAY33%1.5proj+199fair—mkt—O2.5 60%BTTS 63%
9:30 AM ET
Proj2.0–1.4
FCU1. FC Union BerlinHOME49%2.0proj+103fair+161mktModel lean+10.8%DRWDraw24%—proj+324fair+272mkt-3.2%
SGEEintracht FrankfurtAWAY27%1.4proj+268fair+188mkt-7.5%O2.5 67% · mkt 56%BTTS 67%
9:30 AM ET
Proj1.5–1.4
M05MainzHOME38%1.5proj+166fair-126mkt-18.0%DRWDraw27%—proj+271fair+321mkt+3.2%
SCPSC Paderborn 07AWAY35%1.4proj+182fair+400mktModel lean+15.4%O2.5 56% · mkt 56%BTTS 60%
9:30 AM ET
Proj2.0–1.2
RBLRB LeipzigHOME55%2.0proj-123fair-160mkt-6.3%DRWDraw24%—proj+321fair+386mkt+3.2%
BMGBorussia MönchengladbachAWAY21%1.2proj+376fair+476mkt+3.6%O2.5 60%BTTS 60%
9:30 AM ET
Proj1.7–1.5
ELVSV ElversbergHOME43%1.7proj+135fair+451mktModel lean+24.4%DRWDraw25%—proj+298fair+372mkt+4.0%
B04Bayer LeverkusenAWAY32%1.5proj+210fair-154mkt-28.3%O2.5 63%BTTS 65%
12:30 PM ET
Proj2.0–1.1
DORBorussia DortmundHOME58%2.0proj-137fair-242mkt-13.0%DRWDraw23%—proj+327fair+454mktModel lean+5.3%
HSVHamburg SVAWAY19%1.1proj+432fair+797mktModel lean+7.6%O2.5 59%BTTS 58%
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
9:30 AM ET
Proj1.9–1.2
SCFSC FreiburgHOME53%1.9proj-112fair+115mktModel lean+6.2%DRWDraw24%—proj+314fair+280mkt-2.2%
SVWWerder BremenAWAY23%1.2proj+333fair+269mkt-4.0%O2.5 61% · mkt 54%BTTS 61%
11:30 AM ET
Proj1.4–1.4
FCAFC AugsburgHOME37%1.4proj+169fair+129mkt-6.4%DRWDraw28%—proj+262fair+291mkt+2.1%
S04Schalke 04AWAY35%1.4proj+185fair+227mktModel lean+4.5%O2.5 53% · mkt 59%BTTS 58%
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Bundesliga table
Season hasn't kicked off — updates as matches play2026-27 German Bundesliga
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WLWLD |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LLLWW |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWDWL |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWLWD |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 8 | FC Cologne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LLDLL |
| 9 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LDLWD |
| 10 | Hamburg SV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWLD |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DWLWD |
| 12 | Mainz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LDLLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 14 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDWLL |
| 15 | Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DLLWD |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LDDWW |
| 18 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LDLLD |