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Bundesliga Match Board — Saturday, October 10, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Saturday, October 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, October 10, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 39 of 45 on ML, 18 of 45 on Over 2.5, 39 of 45 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 10

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–2
Proj1.5–2.7
Match page →
FCAFC AugsburgHOME19%1.5proj+424fair+1031mktModel lean+10.2%
Draw19%—proj+434fair+762mktModel lean+7.1%
MUNBayern MunichAWAY✗62%2.7proj-165fair-389mkt-17.4%
O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 72% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 56% · mkt 61% ✗
Fandango
FT · 3–4
Proj1.7–1.7
Match page →
M05MainzHOME37%1.7proj+170fair+220mktModel lean+5.8%
Draw25%—proj+305fair+287mkt-1.1%
B04Bayer LeverkusenAWAY✓38%1.7proj+161fair+132mkt-4.8%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 45% · mkt 42% ✗
Fandango
FT · 1–0
Proj1.7–2.4
Match page →
FCU1. FC Union BerlinHOME27%1.7proj+271fair+160mkt-11.5%
Draw21%—proj+376fair+275mkt-5.7%
ELVSV ElversbergAWAY✗52%2.4proj-108fair+187mktModel lean+17.2%
O2.5 77% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 75% · mkt 64% ✗1H O1.5 54% · mkt 41% ✗
Fandango
FT · 0–2
Proj1.5–1.5
Match page →
SCPSC Paderborn 07HOME36%1.5proj+175fair+399mktModel lean+16.3%
Draw27%—proj+271fair+390mktModel lean+6.5%
VFBVfB StuttgartAWAY✓37%1.5proj+172fair-149mkt-23.1%
O2.5 56% ✗BTTS 60% · mkt 70% ✗1H O1.5 38% · mkt 50% ✓
Fandango
FT · 2–3
Proj2.5–1.2
Match page →
TSGTSG HoffenheimHOME✗65%2.5proj-182fair-204mkt-2.5%
Draw19%—proj+422fair+449mkt+0.9%
HSVHamburg SVAWAY16%1.2proj+513fair+600mkt+2.0%
O2.5 72% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 50% · mkt 47% ✓
Fandango
FT · 6–0
Proj2.5–1.4
Match page →
RBLRB LeipzigHOME✓61%2.5proj-156fair-143mkt+2.0%
Draw19%—proj+413fair+398mkt-0.6%
SGEEintracht FrankfurtAWAY20%1.4proj+409fair+381mkt-1.1%
O2.5 76% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 70% ✗1H O1.5 53% · mkt 52% ✓
USA Net

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).