Ligue 1 Match Board

Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Friday, August 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.4

LILLLilleHOME44%1.7proj+129fair+360mktModel lean+21.9%

DRWDraw26%—proj+292fair+314mkt+1.4%

PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY31%1.4proj+224fair-118mkt-23.3%

O2.5 61% · mkt 55%BTTS 63%

Saturday, August 29

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.5–1.7

STRStrasbourgHOME34%1.5proj+195fair+251mktModel lean+5.5%

DRWDraw26%—proj+291fair+267mkt-1.7%

RCLLensAWAY41%1.7proj+147fair+122mkt-4.5%

O2.5 61% · mkt 57%BTTS 64%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.6–1.1

AUXAJ AuxerreHOME48%1.6proj+109fair+103mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw27%—proj+266fair+266mkt+0.1%

ANGAngersAWAY25%1.1proj+304fair+327mkt+1.3%

O2.5 50% · mkt 46%BTTS 54%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.2

BREBrestHOME47%1.7proj+113fair+176mktModel lean+10.8%

DRWDraw26%—proj+279fair+256mkt-1.7%

TOUToulouseAWAY27%1.2proj+276fair+180mkt-9.1%

O2.5 55% · mkt 48%BTTS 58%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.1–0.9

LORLorientHOME38%1.1proj+162fair-103mkt-12.6%

DRWDraw33%—proj+199fair+275mktModel lean+6.8%

TRYTroyesAWAY28%0.9proj+252fair+341mktModel lean+5.7%

O2.5 32% · mkt 47%BTTS 41%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.8–0.8

LYONLyonHOME61%1.8proj-157fair-176mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw25%—proj+306fair+372mkt+3.4%

HACLe Havre ACAWAY14%0.8proj+600fair+584mkt-0.3%

O2.5 47% · mkt 54%BTTS 46%

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.6–1.2

PARParis FCHOME45%1.6proj+124fair+122mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw27%—proj+264fair+259mkt-0.4%

NICENiceAWAY28%1.2proj+259fair+270mkt+0.8%

O2.5 52% · mkt 44%BTTS 56%

11:15 AM ET

Proj2.2–1.3

RENStade RennaisHOME56%2.2proj-130fair—mkt—

DRWDraw22%—proj+357fair—mkt—

MNSLe MansAWAY22%1.3proj+362fair—mkt—

O2.5 69%BTTS 66%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.2–1.6

MONAS MonacoHOME29%1.2proj+243fair+170mkt-7.8%

DRWDraw27%—proj+266fair+292mkt+1.8%

OLMMarseilleAWAY44%1.6proj+130fair+166mktModel lean+5.9%

O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Ligue 1 table

Updated daily from final results

French Ligue 1 2026-27

#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Marseille	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3	WDLWW
2	Lens	1	1	0	0	5	2	+3	3	WWWWW
3	Lille	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3	WWWWW
4	Lyon	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3	LDLWW
5	AS Monaco	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3	LWLLW
6	Brest	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	LWWLD
7	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	D
8	Paris Saint-Germain	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	WWLWD
9	Stade Rennais	1	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	WWLWD
10	Lorient	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	DWWDD
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	LLLLD
12	Paris FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	LDDLD
13	Troyes	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
14	Le Havre AC	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	LLDLL
15	Toulouse	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	LDWWL
16	Angers	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	WWLWL
17	AJ Auxerre	1	0	0	1	2	5	-3	0	LDDLL
18	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	LLLDL

Player props

Anytime scorer, shots, assists — priced from our model

Anytime ScorerOpen board →ShotsOpen board →Shots on TargetOpen board →AssistsOpen board →Score or AssistOpen board →