Ligue 1 Match Board

Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.

Today · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Sunday, October 11

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–1

Proj1.3–1.6

Match page →

NiceHOME29%1.3proj+240fair+132mkt-13.7%

Draw27%—proj+272fair+284mkt+0.8%

StrasbourgAWAY✗44%1.6proj+129fair+226mktModel lean+13.1%

O2.5 55% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 40% ✗

beIn Sports

FT · 4–1

Proj2.0–1.2

Match page →

Stade RennaisHOME✓54%2.0proj-118fair—mkt—

Draw24%—proj+325fair—mkt—

AJ AuxerreAWAY22%1.2proj+348fair—mkt—

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗

beIn Sports

FT · 0–2

Proj1.3–1.8

Match page →

TroyesHOME25%1.3proj+295fair+269mkt-1.8%

Draw25%—proj+300fair+279mkt-1.4%

MarseilleAWAY✓50%1.8proj+101fair+114mkt+3.0%

O2.5 60% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 41% · mkt 39% ✓

beIn Sports

Friday, October 16

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.9–1.6

Match page →

Le MansHOME46%1.9proj+119fair+211mktModel lean+13.7%

Draw24%—proj+321fair+270mkt-3.3%

ToulouseAWAY31%1.6proj+228fair+144mkt-10.5%

O2.5 68% · mkt 54%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%

Saturday, October 17

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.5–1.9

Match page →

StrasbourgHOME28%1.5proj+251fair+572mktModel lean+13.6%

Draw24%—proj+318fair+459mktModel lean+6.0%

Paris Saint-GermainAWAY48%1.9proj+110fair-204mkt-19.5%

O2.5 66%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.0

Match page →

LilleHOME53%1.7proj-113fair-119mkt-1.3%

Draw27%—proj+276fair+316mkt+2.5%

BrestAWAY20%1.0proj+392fair+366mkt-1.1%

O2.5 49% · mkt 56%BTTS 51%1H O1.5 33%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.0–2.1

Match page →

TroyesHOME16%1.0proj+513fair+319mkt-7.6%

Draw22%—proj+356fair+317mkt-2.0%

LensAWAY62%2.1proj-162fair-108mktModel lean+9.8%

O2.5 61% · mkt 60%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 41%

Sunday, October 18

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.1–1.5

Match page →

AngersHOME26%1.1proj+286fair+236mkt-3.9%

Draw28%—proj+257fair+292mkt+2.5%

MarseilleAWAY46%1.5proj+117fair+125mkt+1.6%

O2.5 49% · mkt 58%BTTS 53%1H O1.5 33%

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.3–1.1

Match page →

Le Havre ACHOME41%1.3proj+142fair+156mkt+2.2%

Draw30%—proj+234fair+272mkt+3.0%

AJ AuxerreAWAY29%1.1proj+247fair+196mkt-5.0%

O2.5 43% · mkt 50%BTTS 50%1H O1.5 30%

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.3–1.3

Match page →

LorientHOME35%1.3proj+189fair+275mktModel lean+8.0%

Draw29%—proj+247fair+275mkt+2.1%

AS MonacoAWAY37%1.3proj+173fair+114mkt-10.1%

O2.5 49% · mkt 51%BTTS 54%1H O1.5 33%

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.7–1.3

Match page →

Paris FCHOME46%1.7proj+119fair—mkt—

Draw26%—proj+280fair—mkt—

Stade RennaisAWAY28%1.3proj+257fair—mkt—

O2.5 56%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 38%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.8–0.8

Match page →

LyonHOME62%1.8proj-161fair-135mktModel lean+4.1%

Draw24%—proj+311fair+333mkt+1.2%

NiceAWAY14%0.8proj+612fair+410mkt-5.5%

O2.5 48% · mkt 56%BTTS 46%1H O1.5 32%

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Ligue 1 table

Updated daily from final results

French Ligue 1 2026-27

#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	AS Monaco	6	4	2	0	10	5	+5	14	WWDWD
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	9	4	+5	13	DWWLW
3	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11	4	+7	11	DWDWL
4	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	8	4	+4	11	WWDWL
5	Paris Saint-Germain	6	3	2	1	11	8	+3	11	DLWWW
6	Stade Rennais	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10	WWWLW
7	Brest	6	2	2	2	12	9	+3	8	DWLLW
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	6	6	0	8	LWDLW
9	Lens	6	2	1	3	11	10	+1	7	LLDLW
10	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7	WWDLL
11	Angers	6	2	1	3	7	10	-3	7	WLDWL
12	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	10	12	-2	6	LDDWL
13	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	9	11	-2	6	DLDWD
14	AJ Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6	LLWWL
15	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5	LDLWW
16	Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4	WLLLL
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3	LLLLW
18	Le Havre AC	6	0	2	4	4	8	-4	2	DLDLL

Player props

Anytime scorer, shots, assists — priced from our model

Anytime ScorerOpen board →ShotsOpen board →Shots on TargetOpen board →AssistsOpen board →Score or AssistOpen board →