Premier League Team Props

Every game's team markets from our goal model — goal count, 1st-half goals, both teams to score in the 1st half, and each side to score in both halves, next to the books where they hang a line.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. Premier League team markets are priced off actual goals, not xG, by a brand-new model — nothing here is a pick. BTTS-1st-half and score-in-both-halves are model-only (no book hangs them). Research, not betting advice — 21+.

Friday, August 21

ARS v COV COV

FT · 3–0

Goal count · Over 2.555%-123fair-150mkt-4.9%

1st-half goals · Over 1.537%+169fair—mkt—

Both teams to score · 1st half21%+385fair—mkt—

ARS to score in both halves38%+164fair—mkt—

COV to score in both halves14%+606fair—mkt—

Ours = our model's probability. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt = the books' vig-free price where offered. Edge = our probability minus the market's. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).