MLS Team Props
Every game's team markets from our xG goal model — goal count, 1st-half goals, both teams to score in the 1st half, and each side to score in both halves, next to the books where they hang a line.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. Team markets are priced by a brand-new model — nothing here is a pick. BTTS-1st-half and score-in-both-halves are model-only (no US book hangs them). Grading against the box score is coming to this board. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Saturday, March 7
NYC v ORL
FT · 5–0
Goal count · Over 2.563%-170fair-142mkt+4.4%
1st-half goals · Over 1.543%+132fair—mkt—
DC v MIA
FT · 1–2
Goal count · Over 2.562%-164fair—mkt—
1st-half goals · Over 1.542%+136fair—mkt—
CLB v CHI
FT · 0–0
Goal count · Over 2.566%-191fair—mkt—
1st-half goals · Over 1.545%+122fair—mkt—
ATL v RSL
FT · 2–3
Goal count · Over 2.555%-121fair-103mkt+4.0%
1st-half goals · Over 1.537%+169fair—mkt—
CLT v ATX
FT · 3–1
Goal count · Over 2.557%-132fair+103mkt+7.5%
1st-half goals · Over 1.539%+159fair—mkt—
PHI v SJ
FT · 0–1
Goal count · Over 2.564%-177fair-127mkt+8.0%
1st-half goals · Over 1.544%+129fair—mkt—
SKC v SD
FT · 0–1
Goal count · Over 2.561%-158fair—mkt—
1st-half goals · Over 1.542%+139fair—mkt—
NSH v MIN
FT · 3–1
Goal count · Over 2.559%-146fair-126mkt+3.6%
1st-half goals · Over 1.540%+148fair—mkt—
STL v SEA
FT · 0–1
Goal count · Over 2.562%-167fair-130mkt+6.0%
1st-half goals · Over 1.543%+134fair—mkt—
COL v LA
FT · 4–1
Goal count · Over 2.566%-196fair—mkt—
1st-half goals · Over 1.546%+120fair—mkt—
LAFC v DAL
FT · 1–0
Goal count · Over 2.564%-176fair—mkt—
1st-half goals · Over 1.543%+130fair—mkt—
POR v VAN
FT · 1–4
Goal count · Over 2.558%-140fair-143mkt-0.4%
1st-half goals · Over 1.540%+152fair—mkt—
Ours = our model's probability. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt = the books' vig-free price where offered (goal count and 1st-half totals; the two 1st-half/both-halves markets are model-only). Edge = our probability minus the market's. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).