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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 20, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

● 2–9 · Top 6MINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup76● 5–8 · End 3PITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup67● 3–1 · Top 5TBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup99● 2–3 · Bot 5BALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup91● 1–4 · Top 4LADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup94● 1–1 · Bot 5SDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup48● 1–3 · Top 3NYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup100● 0–0 · Bot 3SFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup588:05 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup80● 0–0 · Bot 1CWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup83● 0–0 · Bot 1MIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup758:40 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup1009:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup669:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup9510:10 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup98
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate15.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.6%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)22.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.9%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)24.5%3.0
5. Jorge Polanco (L)20.4%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)21.9%3.0
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)20.5%2.3
8. Brett Baty (L)23.6%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-118

We project 3.9 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB26.0%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)23.7%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)21.3%2.7
3. Cole Carrigg (R)24.3%2.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)24.8%2.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)23.1%2.0
6. Willi Castro (R)21.1%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)21.9%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)22.1%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-110
DKDraftKings-151+113

We project 4.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.3%
vs RHB19.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)26.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)27.1%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.1%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)17.3%2.4
5. Chandler Simpson (L)26.9%2.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)18.3%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)21.2%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)23.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+124-166

We project 3.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)21.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)19.6%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)25.4%2.7
4. Jorge Soler (R)19.3%2.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)23.8%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)20.5%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)19.2%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)24.5%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-135+102
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)3.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.4 BF

Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness25.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)26.6%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.2%2.4
3. Shea Langeliers (R)29.4%2.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)21.2%2.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)30.1%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)23.2%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.5%2.0
8. Alika Williams (R)26.3%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-113-117
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 4.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.7%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)24.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)19.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)21.7%2.5
4. Alec Bohm (R)21.7%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)24.4%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)23.6%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.8%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-122-109

We project 4.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.1%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)25.3%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)22.9%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.1%2.4
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)17.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.4%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-160+120

We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB18.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)24.5%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)21.1%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)19.8%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)20.3%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)23.3%2.6
6. Leody Taveras (R)18.3%2.0
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.7%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)16.4%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)24.2%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)20.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.4%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)20.6%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.8%3.0
6. Kyle Teel (L)22.5%2.2
7. Braden Montgomery (L)22.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)27.0%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-120-110
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.3 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.2%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.8%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)22.7%2.3
5. Ian Happ (L)20.5%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)24.6%2.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)25.2%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.2%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-149+112
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)21.8%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)22.8%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)22.8%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.4%2.7
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)21.4%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)19.4%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)24.0%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-150+113
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)23.1%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)22.5%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)23.5%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.4%2.8
5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.6%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)21.1%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.1%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)22.5%2.0
9. James Outman (L)14.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-107-124

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB17.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)25.1%3.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)22.3%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)22.0%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)22.6%2.9
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)18.9%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)19.5%2.0
7. David Fry (R)20.1%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)20.1%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-139+105
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)21.7%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.2%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)27.1%3.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)24.4%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)24.8%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)20.5%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)22.1%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)22.5%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.8 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ronel Blanco's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.2%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)23.4%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)23.0%2.3
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.8%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)21.8%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.4%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)19.9%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-162

We project 4.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)20.2%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.0%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.9%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)23.2%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.0%2.2
7. Ryan McMahon (L)20.3%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)18.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-105-126
FANFanatics-120-120

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)22.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.6%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.0%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (R)20.8%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)27.2%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)20.3%2.2
7. Victor Robles (R)22.9%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)14.8%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)26.2%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)25.4%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)25.1%3.0
4. George Springer (R)23.3%2.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)19.9%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)19.7%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)23.4%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.9%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 4.9 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)24.8%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)21.4%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)19.9%2.6
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.3%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)20.9%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)24.1%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)19.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-143+108

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)24.0%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)23.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)19.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)22.5%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)21.3%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)23.3%2.6
7. Brooks Lee (L)21.1%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)18.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+103-136

We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB26.1%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)25.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)25.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)21.1%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)22.6%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)16.7%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)25.3%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)22.5%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)22.5%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)16.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-163+123

We project 5.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)24.6%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)25.7%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)22.5%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)25.3%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)22.5%2.3
6. Nolan Arenado (R)24.1%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)15.8%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)27.9%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-121-109

We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)24.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)24.4%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)24.0%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)23.0%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)24.7%2.1
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)23.1%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)21.0%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)19.8%2.0
9. Eli White (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-116-114
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)25.0%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.1%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.9%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)28.8%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.1%2.5
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)20.3%2.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)24.0%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)16.2%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-166+125

We project 5.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)28.4%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)21.8%3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)23.5%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.4%2.4
7. Willy Adames (R)21.4%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)22.4%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-113-118
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 5.5 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.8%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.9%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)22.0%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)26.4%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)23.3%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.7%2.7
8. Connor Wong (R)19.2%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-158+119

We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB26.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.0%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0
4. Ty France (R)24.1%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)20.1%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%2.2
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.3%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)21.5%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-112-118

We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.7%
vs RHB28.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)26.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)26.2%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (R)24.4%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)21.7%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)20.3%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)26.2%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.8%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)24.1%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-137+103
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 6.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.3%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.6%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.3%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)21.0%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)23.5%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.0%3.0
7. Dane Myers (R)20.6%2.9
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-162+122

We project 6.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate28.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB28.7%
vs RHB26.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)24.4%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)23.2%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)20.6%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)22.5%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)22.5%3.0
7. Harry Ford (R)22.3%2.5
8. Luis García Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 6.7 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays