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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

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PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB16.3%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)20.6%2.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)17.2%2.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)30.9%2.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.2%2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)17.7%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)19.3%1.1
7. David Fry (R)17.4%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)16.4%1.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)16.9%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kendry Rojas's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.4 BF

Expected batters faced15.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.2%2.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.0%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%2.0
4. Ty France (R)24.1%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)20.1%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.3%1.4
8. Freddy Fermin (R)21.5%1.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.2%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)22.6%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.0%2.5
3. Corbin Carroll (L)20.0%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)27.0%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)20.4%2.0
6. Tyler Locklear (R)17.9%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.2%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)23.1%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.4%
vs RHB18.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.1%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)22.9%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)19.8%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)25.3%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.9%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)21.6%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.1%2.0
9. Blaze Jordan (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB15.8%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)19.2%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.3%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)25.4%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)26.7%2.5
5. Jake Burger (R)23.2%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.4%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)14.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.1%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)20.6%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.3%3.0
3. Cole Young (L)22.0%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)20.7%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)18.0%3.0
6. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%2.2
7. Mitch Garver (R)16.7%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)19.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.3%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)25.5%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.0%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)21.7%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)19.9%2.3
6. Victor Caratini (R)20.8%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R)24.3%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)18.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.4%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)29.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.6%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (L)22.7%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)25.4%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)21.5%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)23.2%2.6
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.8%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)21.4%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB16.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)21.7%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.2%2.9
3. Xavier Edwards (L)27.1%2.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)24.4%2.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)24.8%2.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)20.5%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)22.1%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)19.1%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)24.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)25.1%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)22.1%2.5
4. Riley Greene (L)20.8%2.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)21.5%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)18.4%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.6%2.0
8. James Outman (L)18.7%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.6%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)22.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.9%2.5
4. Francisco Lindor (L)24.5%2.0
5. Jorge Polanco (L)20.4%2.0
6. Jared Young (L)21.9%2.0
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)20.5%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.6%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)28.4%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.6%2.2
4. Rafael Devers (L)21.8%2.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)23.5%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.4%2.0
7. Willy Adames (R)21.4%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)22.4%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)26.2%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)25.4%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)25.1%2.7
4. George Springer (R)23.3%2.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)19.9%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)19.7%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)23.4%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.9%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)25.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)25.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)21.1%2.7
4. Jose Altuve (R)22.6%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)16.7%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)25.3%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)18.8%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)23.0%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)20.2%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.0%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.9%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)23.2%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.0%2.1
7. Ryan McMahon (L)20.3%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)18.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.4%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)26.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)27.1%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.1%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)17.3%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)26.9%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)18.3%2.5
7. Richie Palacios (L)21.2%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)23.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)25.3%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.8%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)24.0%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.4%2.5
6. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.3%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.8%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.9%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)22.0%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)26.4%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)23.3%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.7%2.5
8. Connor Wong (R)19.2%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)25.3%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)20.1%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)23.6%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)19.3%2.2
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)24.2%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)18.4%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)27.4%2.0
8. Oswald Peraza (R)18.6%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (R)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)24.8%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)21.4%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)19.9%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.3%2.7
6. Salvador Perez (R)20.9%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)24.1%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)19.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)20.5%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.2%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)22.3%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)22.0%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)18.8%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)29.4%3.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (R)22.5%2.5
8. Carson Kelly (R)24.6%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.3%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.6%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.3%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)21.0%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.5%2.4
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)23.5%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.0%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)19.1%2.0
9. Dane Myers (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)22.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)28.3%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)22.4%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)20.0%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.3%2.7
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)26.8%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)21.8%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)17.4%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)26.4%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)20.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.8%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)22.5%2.5
5. Michael Harris II (L)26.3%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)23.6%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)21.8%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.5%2.0
9. Eli White (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)26.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)23.0%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.9%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.4%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)19.5%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)16.2%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB24.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)24.5%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)21.1%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)19.8%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)20.3%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)23.3%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)18.3%2.4
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.7%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)16.4%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB26.6%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)24.2%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)20.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.4%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)20.6%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.8%2.1
6. Kyle Teel (L)22.8%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)22.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)27.0%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)26.6%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.2%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)29.4%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)23.2%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.5%3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R)21.2%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.5%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)23.5%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)21.4%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)24.1%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)19.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.0%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)16.9%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)20.7%2.0
7. Harry Ford (R)23.2%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)26.0%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.6%
vs RHB27.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)25.1%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)22.8%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)24.6%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)27.5%2.5
6. Willi Castro (L)22.0%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)17.5%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)22.4%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays