Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Blake Snell. The righty is scoring at .199 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Blake Snell has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Blake Snell, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (94) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .121 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (91) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .131 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (66) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (56) vs LHP Blake Snell: a solid bat at .119 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- William Contreras (MIL) (54) vs LHP Blake Snell: a solid bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) (48) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .127 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (43) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a league-average bat at .110 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .199 against lefties this year.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .135 against lefties this year.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .126 against lefties this year.
- William Contreras (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .142 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays