College Football Predictions — 2026 Week 10
Our biggest call in Week 10 is Wake Forest over Merrimack by 52.2 points, with the home side winning 100% of the simulations. 63 of 63 games with an FBS team on the field are priced, last run Nov 4, 6:34 PM ET: our projected score for each side, the margin, the total and how often the home team wins it, next to the book's spread. Margin is home minus road, so a plus sign means we like the home team.
How has the college football moneyline board graded this season?
The college football moneyline board is 485-137 through Nov 4, 2026, a 78% hit rate over 622 graded calls.
That is 174 more wins than a coin flip would have produced over the same 622 decided calls.
On a flat one-unit stake at the posted price that is +5.3u.
Every FBS game gets a moneyline call — whichever side the simulation makes the favourite, with no edge threshold — locked before kickoff and graded against the final score; units risk one unit a pick at the median closing price across books, and a game with no closing line counts in the record and scores no units.
591 of the 622 calls had a closing price to score, so the unit total covers those and the W-L covers all of them. Against the spread, graded only where our number and the book's disagreed by enough to call, the board is 24-21 (53.3%), +0.8u over the 45 priced calls. On game totals it is 26-5 (83.9%), +18.6u over 31 priced. That is the 2026 season; the favourite-heavy nature of a moneyline card means the W-L reads healthier than the units on its own.
Graded through · 622 calls
| Kickoff (ET) | Road | Home | Road pts | Home pts | Margin | Total | Home win | Book | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM | Ohio | Akron | 29.5 | 23.3 | -6.1 | 52.0 | 0.366 | -13.5 | 28–20 |
| Tue Nov 3, 8:00 PM | Buffalo | Miami (OH) | 21.8 | 29.0 | +7.3 | 50.0 | 0.663 | +6.5 | 34–31 |
| Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM | Ball State | Massachusetts | 22.8 | 29.6 | +6.8 | 51.0 | 0.651 | +2.5 | |
| Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM | Toledo | Sacramento State | 39.7 | 16.4 | -23.3 | 55.0 | 0.070 | -25.5 | |
| Wed Nov 4, 7:30 PM | Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 23.6 | 27.4 | +3.8 | 50.5 | 0.577 | -2.5 | |
| Thu Nov 5, 7:30 PM | UTSA | Florida Atlantic | 32.5 | 25.2 | -7.3 | 57.0 | 0.346 | -7.0 | |
| Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM | James Madison | Southern Miss | 31.6 | 22.4 | -9.2 | 54.0 | 0.293 | -14.5 | |
| Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM | Virginia Tech | SMU | 22.0 | 34.3 | +12.3 | 55.0 | 0.771 | +6.0 | |
| Fri Nov 6, 7:30 PM | South Florida | East Carolina | 22.8 | 25.9 | +3.1 | 48.0 | 0.556 | +2.5 | |
| Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM | Nebraska | Illinois | 29.1 | 25.5 | -3.6 | 54.0 | 0.434 | -4.5 | |
| Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM | New Mexico | Nevada | 30.2 | 19.0 | -11.2 | 48.0 | 0.242 | -9.5 | |
| Fri Nov 6, 10:15 PM | TCU | Arizona | 20.9 | 30.1 | +9.1 | 51.0 | 0.706 | +8.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | Iowa State | Baylor | 23.2 | 30.2 | +7.0 | 52.0 | 0.653 | +10.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | Florida State | Boston College | 31.9 | 22.0 | -9.9 | 53.0 | 0.275 | -6.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | UCLA | Minnesota | 26.0 | 22.2 | -3.8 | 48.0 | 0.423 | -5.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | Texas | Missouri | 27.0 | 22.0 | -5.1 | 48.0 | 0.391 | -2.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | Clemson | Syracuse | 25.9 | 26.0 | +0.1 | 51.0 | 0.473 | -2.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | Tulsa | Tulane | 22.4 | 28.8 | +6.4 | 51.0 | 0.639 | -2.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | North Carolina | UConn | 29.4 | 24.6 | -4.8 | 54.0 | 0.399 | -7.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM | BYU | Utah | 21.5 | 32.4 | +10.9 | 54.0 | 0.745 | +5.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:30 PM | Duke | NC State | 28.8 | 26.1 | -2.7 | 54.0 | 0.458 | -4.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:30 PM | Maryland | Purdue | 22.1 | 31.2 | +9.1 | 52.0 | 0.705 | +6.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 12:45 PM | Arkansas | Auburn | 23.0 | 30.9 | +7.9 | 52.0 | 0.678 | +10.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 1:00 PM | Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina | 20.9 | 26.9 | +6.0 | 47.0 | 0.630 | +7.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 1:00 PM | Oklahoma State | Kansas State | 28.4 | 28.7 | +0.3 | 56.0 | 0.485 | -5.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 2:30 PM | Georgia State | App State | 27.9 | 26.4 | -1.4 | 54.0 | 0.487 | +5.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM | UL Monroe | Arkansas State | 20.3 | 33.6 | +13.3 | 53.0 | 0.792 | +14.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM | Delaware | Kennesaw State | 25.0 | 27.9 | +2.9 | 52.0 | 0.556 | -2.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM | Texas A&M | South Carolina | 27.8 | 25.4 | -2.4 | 52.0 | 0.465 | +7.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Marshall | Georgia Southern | 22.6 | 33.3 | +10.7 | 55.0 | 0.735 | +10.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Cincinnati | Houston | 22.1 | 35.9 | +13.8 | 58.0 | 0.800 | +10.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Alabama | LSU | 23.2 | 30.0 | +6.8 | 52.0 | 0.652 | +5.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Western Kentucky | Middle Tennessee | 25.9 | 26.9 | +1.0 | 52.0 | 0.500 | -1.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Temple | Navy | 24.8 | 31.8 | +6.9 | 55.0 | 0.652 | +7.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Oregon | Ohio State | 22.0 | 31.2 | +9.3 | 52.0 | 0.708 | +7.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Charlotte | UAB | 17.4 | 33.1 | +15.7 | 50.0 | 0.845 | +8.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | MerrimackFCS | Wake Forest | 7.0 | 59.1 | +52.2 | 65.0 | 1.000 | +47.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM | Penn State | Washington | 28.6 | 23.4 | -5.2 | 51.0 | 0.387 | +2.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:45 PM | UCF | Kansas | 23.3 | 29.6 | +6.2 | 52.0 | 0.641 | +3.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM | Missouri State | Florida International | 25.3 | 27.1 | +1.8 | 51.0 | 0.523 | +4.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM | Rice | North Texas | 19.8 | 39.7 | +19.9 | 59.0 | 0.894 | +17.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM | Northern Illinois | San José State | 23.4 | 25.0 | +1.6 | 48.0 | 0.516 | +10.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM | Louisiana Tech | Troy | 30.2 | 20.9 | -9.3 | 51.0 | 0.288 | -4.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:15 PM | Vanderbilt | Mississippi State | 23.9 | 30.9 | +7.0 | 54.0 | 0.655 | +3.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 4:15 PM | Rutgers | Wisconsin | 21.2 | 31.9 | +10.7 | 52.0 | 0.742 | +17.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM | South Alabama | Louisiana | 21.9 | 34.1 | +12.2 | 55.0 | 0.766 | +7.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 6:00 PM | Boise State | Colorado State | 41.8 | 21.3 | -20.5 | 62.0 | 0.101 | -17.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 6:15 PM | Kentucky | Tennessee | 23.8 | 29.1 | +5.3 | 52.0 | 0.613 | +6.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:00 PM | Sam Houston | Jacksonville State | 16.9 | 37.2 | +20.4 | 54.0 | 0.908 | +17.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Colorado | Arizona State | 23.4 | 28.9 | +5.5 | 51.0 | 0.616 | +3.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Air Force | Army | 19.9 | 34.1 | +14.1 | 53.0 | 0.807 | +3.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Louisville | Georgia Tech | 32.4 | 21.8 | -10.7 | 54.0 | 0.263 | -14.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Michigan State | Michigan | 19.3 | 30.8 | +11.5 | 49.0 | 0.762 | +13.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Iowa | Northwestern | 25.1 | 27.2 | +2.1 | 51.0 | 0.526 | +3.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Miami | Notre Dame | 24.5 | 30.8 | +6.4 | 55.0 | 0.639 | +7.0 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM | Georgia | Ole Miss | 27.2 | 27.7 | +0.4 | 54.0 | 0.484 | -3.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 7:45 PM | Oklahoma | Florida | 25.0 | 27.2 | +2.1 | 51.0 | 0.530 | +6.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 8:00 PM | Liberty | New Mexico State | 32.1 | 18.6 | -13.5 | 50.0 | 0.200 | -16.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 9:30 PM | West Virginia | Texas Tech | 19.4 | 37.8 | +18.4 | 56.0 | 0.873 | +16.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 9:30 PM | Fresno State | Utah State | 26.0 | 23.4 | -2.6 | 48.0 | 0.460 | -2.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 9:30 PM | Hawai'i | UTEP | 32.7 | 20.7 | -12.0 | 52.0 | 0.230 | -9.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 10:30 PM | Texas State | Oregon State | 28.5 | 31.0 | +2.5 | 58.0 | 0.540 | +6.5 | |
| Sat Nov 7, 10:30 PM | Wyoming | UNLV | 20.1 | 32.1 | +12.0 | 51.0 | 0.770 | +6.0 |
The scores come out of a drive-by-drive simulation of each game. Margin is the gap between the two projected scores, and Home win is how often the home team won the sim. Book is the sportsbook consensus spread, flipped to the same sign as our margin. Games more than ten days out aren't priced yet, so those cells stay blank. Every one of these gets graded on the matchups board. Model ncaaf-sim-1/11of20.