Bundesliga Match Board — Sunday, September 28, 2025

Every Bundesliga match on Sunday, September 28, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, September 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

SC Freiburgvs TSG

TSG Hoffenheim

Europa-Park Stadion · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 1–2

FC Colognevs VFB

VfB Stuttgart

RheinEnergieStadion · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 0–0

1. FC Union Berlinvs HSV

Hamburg SV

Stadion An der Alten Försterei · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).