Bundesliga Match Board — Friday, November 21, 2025
Every Bundesliga match on Friday, November 21, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Friday, November 21
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–1
Mainzvs
TSG HoffenheimMEWA ARENA · Wasn't priced before kickoff.
ESPN+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).