Bundesliga Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 30, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 40 of 45 on ML, 19 of 45 on Over 2.5, 40 of 45 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 4–1

Proj2.1–1.2

Match page →

SC FreiburgHOME✓59%2.1proj-143fair+103mktModel lean+9.4%

Draw22%—proj+352fair+285mkt-3.9%

Werder BremenAWAY19%1.2proj+425fair+310mkt-5.3%

O2.5 64% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 62% · mkt 57% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗

Fandango

FT · 3–0

Proj1.6–1.3

Match page →

FC AugsburgHOME✓44%1.6proj+129fair+134mkt+0.9%

Draw27%—proj+277fair+267mkt-0.7%

Schalke 04AWAY30%1.3proj+236fair+230mkt-0.5%

O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 60% ✗1H O1.5 38% ✓

Fandango

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).