Bundesliga Match Board — Friday, September 11, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Friday, September 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, September 11, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 40 of 45 on ML, 19 of 45 on Over 2.5, 40 of 45 on BTTS.

Friday, September 11

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 1–3

Proj1.5–1.1

Match page →

1. FC Union BerlinHOME✗44%1.5proj+129fair+144mkt+2.6%

Draw28%—proj+253fair+270mkt+1.3%

Schalke 04AWAY28%1.1proj+256fair+209mkt-4.2%

O2.5 49% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 54% · mkt 63% ✓1H O1.5 33% ✓

Fandango

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).