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Bundesliga Match Board — Saturday, September 12, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Saturday, September 12, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 12, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 40 of 45 on ML, 19 of 45 on Over 2.5, 40 of 45 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 12

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 3–0
Proj1.7–0.8
Match page →
DORBorussia DortmundHOME✓59%1.7proj-146fair-291mkt-15.1%
Draw26%—proj+290fair+567mktModel lean+10.7%
SCPSC Paderborn 07AWAY15%0.8proj+568fair+861mktModel lean+4.5%
O2.5 45% ✗BTTS 45% · mkt 54% ✓1H O1.5 30% ✓
Fandango
FT · 2–2
Proj1.6–1.6
Match page →
FCAFC AugsburgHOME36%1.6proj+179fair+281mktModel lean+9.6%
Draw26%—proj+291fair+329mkt+2.2%
B04Bayer LeverkusenAWAY✗39%1.6proj+159fair-103mkt-12.0%
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 71% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
Fandango
FT · 1–3
Proj2.2–1.3
Match page →
M05MainzHOME✗57%2.2proj-133fair-113mktModel lean+4.1%
Draw22%—proj+363fair+331mkt-1.6%
SGEEintracht FrankfurtAWAY21%1.3proj+371fair+322mkt-2.5%
O2.5 69% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 48% ✗
Fandango
FT · 5–0
Proj1.9–1.3
Match page →
SCFSC FreiburgHOME✓51%1.9proj-105fair-127mkt-4.7%
Draw24%—proj+309fair+334mkt+1.4%
BMGBorussia MönchengladbachAWAY24%1.3proj+311fair+373mkt+3.2%
O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 62% · mkt 64% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✗
Fandango
FT · 2–1
Proj2.0–2.1
Match page →
TSGTSG HoffenheimHOME37%2.0proj+167fair+137mkt-4.8%
Draw22%—proj+360fair+321mkt-2.0%
VFBVfB StuttgartAWAY✗41%2.1proj+145fair+193mktModel lean+6.7%
O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 77% · mkt 73% ✓1H O1.5 55% ✗
Fandango
FT · 1–1
Proj1.8–1.4
Match page →
KOEFC CologneHOME✗47%1.8proj+111fair—mkt—
Draw25%—proj+303fair—mkt—
SVWWerder BremenAWAY28%1.4proj+261fair—mkt—
O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
Fandango

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).