Bundesliga Match Board — Friday, October 9, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Friday, October 9, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, October 9, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 39 of 45 on ML, 18 of 45 on Over 2.5, 39 of 45 on BTTS.

Friday, October 9

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–2

Proj2.5–0.8

Match page →

Borussia DortmundHOME✗73%2.5proj-269fair-244mkt+2.0%

Draw17%—proj+472fair+488mkt+0.5%

Werder BremenAWAY10%0.8proj+941fair+726mkt-2.5%

O2.5 64% · mkt 66% ✓BTTS 52% · mkt 52% ✓1H O1.5 44% · mkt 45% ✓

Fandango

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).