La Liga Match Board — Sunday, October 11, 2026

Every La Liga match on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 73 of 77 on ML, 56 of 77 on Over 2.5, 73 of 77 on BTTS.

Sunday, October 11

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 0–0

Proj1.5–1.3

Match page →

ElcheHOME✗40%1.5proj+147fair+216mktModel lean+8.8%

Draw27%—proj+264fair+241mkt-1.8%

Celta VigoAWAY32%1.3proj+212fair+155mkt-7.1%

O2.5 53% · mkt 49% ✗BTTS 58% · mkt 56% ✗1H O1.5 36% · mkt 33% ✓

ESPN+

FT · 3–2

Proj1.8–1.4

Match page →

Real SociedadHOME✓46%1.8proj+118fair-123mkt-9.4%

Draw25%—proj+298fair+311mkt+0.8%

DeportivoAWAY29%1.4proj+245fair+396mktModel lean+8.8%

O2.5 61% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 57% ✓1H O1.5 42% · mkt 37% ✗

ESPN+

FT · 5–2

Proj1.9–0.8

Match page →

Real BetisHOME✓62%1.9proj-163fair-174mkt-1.6%

Draw23%—proj+328fair+375mkt+2.3%

OsasunaAWAY15%0.8proj+579fair+555mkt-0.5%

O2.5 53% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 50% · mkt 53% ✗1H O1.5 36% · mkt 38% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–2

Proj1.9–1.5

Match page →

Racing SantanderHOME✗46%1.9proj+116fair+145mktModel lean+5.4%

Draw24%—proj+317fair+266mkt-3.4%

ValenciaAWAY30%1.5proj+235fair+214mkt-2.1%

O2.5 67% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 46% · mkt 38% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).