La Liga Match Board — Saturday, October 10, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, October 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, October 10, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 73 of 77 on ML, 56 of 77 on Over 2.5, 73 of 77 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 10

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

Abandoned

Proj1.4–1.1

Match page →

Rayo VallecanoHOME44%1.4proj+129fair+185mktModel lean+8.5%

Draw29%—proj+244fair+248mkt+0.3%

Athletic ClubAWAY27%1.1proj+267fair+177mkt-8.8%

O2.5 46% · mkt 48%BTTS 51% · mkt 54%1H O1.5 31% · mkt 32%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–2

Proj1.4–1.4

Match page →

AlavésHOME34%1.4proj+190fair+364mktModel lean+12.9%

Draw28%—proj+260fair+287mkt+1.9%

Atlético MadridAWAY✓38%1.4proj+165fair-111mkt-14.9%

O2.5 52% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 57% · mkt 53% ✓1H O1.5 36% · mkt 34% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 3–0

Proj2.3–0.6

Match page →

BarcelonaHOME✓77%2.3proj-327fair-644mkt-10.0%

Draw17%—proj+489fair+1030mktModel lean+8.1%

GetafeAWAY6%0.6proj+1453fair+2028mkt+1.7%

O2.5 55% ✓BTTS 39% · mkt 43% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 53% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–0

Proj2.4–1.2

Match page →

Real MadridHOME✓63%2.4proj-173fair-234mkt-6.8%

Draw20%—proj+402fair+504mkt+3.3%

VillarrealAWAY17%1.2proj+496fair+641mkt+3.3%

O2.5 70% ✗BTTS 65% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 48% · mkt 52% ✓

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).