Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, January 18, 2025

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, January 18, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-8−5.6u

Over 2.57-3+1.4u

BTTS3-7−5.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 9 of 10 on ML, 8 of 10 on Over 2.5, 9 of 10 on BTTS.

Saturday, January 18

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–2

Lensvs

Paris Saint-Germain

Stade Félix Bollaert-Delélis · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–2

Stade Rennaisvs BRE

Brest

Roazhon Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–0

Lyonvs

Toulouse

Groupama Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).