Ligue 1 Match Board — Sunday, December 14, 2025

Every Ligue 1 match on Sunday, December 14, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Sunday, December 14

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–0

Lyonvs

Le Havre AC

Groupama Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–4

AJ Auxerrevs LILL

Lille

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–0

Lensvs

Nice

Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–0

Strasbourgvs LOR

Lorient

Stade de la Meinau · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–0

Marseillevs MON

AS Monaco

Stade Vélodrome · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).