Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, September 12, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, September 12, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 12

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

11:15 AM ET

Strasbourgvs MON

AS Monaco

Stade de la Meinau · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:45 PM ET

AJ Auxerrevs NICE

Nice

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:45 PM ET

Le Havre ACvs ANG

Angers

Stade Océane · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:45 PM ET

Lorientvs

Toulouse

Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:45 PM ET

Paris FCvs LYON

Lyon

Stade Jean Bouin · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).