Ligue 1 Match Board — Sunday, October 11, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Sunday, October 11

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–1

Proj1.3–1.6

Match page →

NiceHOME29%1.3proj+240fair+132mkt-13.7%

Draw27%—proj+272fair+284mkt+0.8%

StrasbourgAWAY✗44%1.6proj+129fair+226mktModel lean+13.1%

O2.5 55% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 40% ✗

beIn Sports

FT · 4–1

Proj2.0–1.2

Match page →

Stade RennaisHOME✓54%2.0proj-118fair—mkt—

Draw24%—proj+325fair—mkt—

AJ AuxerreAWAY22%1.2proj+348fair—mkt—

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗

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FT · 0–2

Proj1.3–1.8

Match page →

TroyesHOME25%1.3proj+295fair+269mkt-1.8%

Draw25%—proj+300fair+279mkt-1.4%

MarseilleAWAY✓50%1.8proj+101fair+114mkt+3.0%

O2.5 60% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 41% · mkt 39% ✓

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Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).